太湖上游局部地区产业结构对水环境质量动态响应研究  

Research on the Dynamic Relationship Between Water Environment and Industrial Structure in the Upstream of Lake Taihu Basin

作　　者：蔡云 刘伟京[2] 王静 艾军勇 田涛 江慧 CAI Yun;LIU Wei-jing;WANG Jing;AI Jun-yong;TIAN Tao;JIANG Hui(Jiangsu Provincial Ecological Assessment Center, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210036, China;Jiangsu Provincial Academy of Environmental Science, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210036,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省生态环境评估中心,江苏南京210036 [2]江苏省环境科学研究院,江苏南京210036

出　　处：《污染防治技术》2019年第2期2-7,11,共7页Pollution Control Technology

基　　金：江苏省太湖治理科研课题(No.TH2015401)

摘　　要：以位于太湖上游地区的宜兴市与武进区为例,利用2000—2016年统计数据,通过协整检验、脉冲响应分析与方差分解,分析区域产业结构对水环境质量的动态效应。结果表明:(1)第二产业占比增加对氨氮浓度升高贡献最大,平均贡献度约50%;(2)提高第三产业占比对降低氨氮浓度有一定贡献,累计响应值为-0.306;(3)增加第一产业占比对总磷浓度升高贡献最大,最高贡献度为47.808%。建议加强产业结构调整,从根本上改善水环境质量。Taking Yixing and Wujin which located in the upstream of Lake Taihu Basin as an example, based on the data from 2000 to 2016, the dynamic relationship between water environment and industrial structure was analyzed by Cointergration Test, Impluse Response Analysis and Variance Decomposition Analysis. The results showed that the proportion of the second industry was the key factor to the ammonia and the average contribution rate was about 50%. The increase of the proportion of tertiary industry contributes to the reduction of ammonia nitrogen concentration, with a cumulative response value of -0.306. The increase of the proportion of the first industry contributed to the TP increasing most and the highest contribution rate was 47.808%. Therefore the industrial structure should be optimized to improve the water environment fundamentally.

关 键 词：太湖流域 产业结构 水环境 动态关系 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]