从2019年“剑桥能源周”看能源行业发展趋势  

Energy Industrial Development Trend from Angle of 2019 CERAWeek

作　　者：刘朝全[1] 陆如泉 杨兆明 徐东[4] 龚金双[1] 彭云[5] 康煜[1] Liu Chaoquan;Lu Ruquan;Yang Zhaoming;Xu Dong;Gong Jinshuang;Peng Yun;Kang Yu(CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute,Beijing 100724,China;CNPC International Department,Beijing 100027,China;CNPC Policies Research Office,Beijing 100027,China;PetroChina Planning and Engineering Institute,Beijing 100083,China;PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油集团经济技术研究院 [2]中国石油天然气集团有限公司国际部 [3]中国石油天然气集团有限公司政策研究室 [4]中国石油规划总院 [5]中国石油勘探开发研究院

出　　处：《石油科技论坛》2019年第2期11-16,38,共7页PETROLEUM SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FORUM

摘　　要：2019年"剑桥能源周"探讨了能源行业发展状态和未来趋势,反映出未来随着美国能源独立并将成为能源净出口国,能源地缘政治呈现新的特点,成为重塑全球能源乃至世界经贸格局的重要力量。当前,从化石能源向可再生能源、从高碳能源向低碳能源的转型,已成为国际社会的共识和国际石油公司追求的方向。传统化石能源仍将长期占据主导地位,天然气是推动未来能源转型的重要"过渡能源"。各石油公司的战略选择呈现多样性,强化技术创新、推进数字化发展是能源转型的关键。在新形势下,美国页岩油生产、维也纳联盟行动、石油需求增长是决定世界石油市场的三大关键因素。研究指出,我国油气行业需从推进创新驱动、加大国内勘探开发力度、加快发展天然气业务和新能源布局等方面积极应对未来能源发展变化。The 2019 CERAWeek discussed the state and future trends of energy industrial development. It is reflected that energy geopolitics takes on the new characteristics and becomes an important force to reshape the global energy and even world trade structure as the United States is independent in energy supply and a net energy exporter in the future. Currently, the transition from fossil energy to renewable energy and from high-carbon energy to low-carbon energy has become the common awareness of international communities and the orientation pursued by international petroleum companies. Traditional fossil energy will remain dominant on long-term basis while natural gas is an important "transitional energy" to fuel future energy transformation. There is a diversity in the strategic options made by various oil companies. Technological innovation and digital development hold the key to energy transformation. Under the new situation, US shale oil production, OPEC+ and oil demand growth are the three key factors to determine global oil market. The study points out that China’s oil and gas industry should make an active response to the future energy development changes in the areas of innovation-driven development, acceleration of natural gas development business and distribution of new energy.

关 键 词：剑桥能源周 地缘政治 技术创新 数字化 页岩油 维也纳联盟 能源转型 公司战略 

分 类 号：F416.2[经济管理—产业经济]