《美墨加协定》对全球经贸格局的影响:北美区域价值链的视角  

Evaluation of the USMCA:A Regional Value Chain Perspective

作　　者：洪朝伟 崔凡[2] Hong Chaowei;Cui Fan

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所经济研究室 [2]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院

出　　处：《拉丁美洲研究》2019年第2期25-43,154,155,共21页Journal of Latin American Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“全球‘规则协调’的经济与福利影响研究”(编号:16JJD79007)资助

摘　　要：本文从北美区域价值链的角度分析了《美墨加协定》条款对全球贸易格局可能产生的影响,并使用GTAP模型模拟了该协定对各国经济增长的冲击。文章得到以下结论:第一,北美区域价值链是一个相对独立的生产网络,与区域外国家的贸易和产业关联程度低于区域内国家,原产地要求提高可能对部分区域外国家的汽车产业及巴西钢铁行业造成一定的负向冲击;第二,从区域价值链参与程度和地位指数来看,墨西哥更适合发展制造业,提高原产地要求违背了国际贸易中的比较优势理论,可能带来北美区域价值链的重构效应、贸易转移效应和投资转移效应;第三,非市场经济条款将对中国与其他国家的自贸区谈判产生障碍,并且可能为其他国家提供了一个自贸区谈判的范本;第四,从GTAP模拟结果看,协定签订对美国GDP存在正向促进作用,中国积极融入区域贸易组织能够避免其负向冲击,但该协定也会对中国加入亚太自贸区产生阻碍。中国应积极加入世贸组织改革的进程,积极推动自贸区谈判,反对歧视性贸易做法。This paper discusses the new changes in the USMCA based on the perspective of regional value chains(RVC),analyzes the possible impact on the global trade pattern,and uses the GTAP model to simulate the possible impact on economic development of relevant countries.The author draws the following conclusions:First,the North American value chain is a relatively independent production network,while the trade and industry association among countries outside is weaker than those in RVC of North America.The USMCA may bring certain negative impact on the automobile industry in Japan,South Korea,China,Brazil and Germany,while the steel industry in Brazil may also be impacted.Second,from the perspective of RVC participation and position indexes,Mexico is more suitable to develop manufacturing industry.The stricter rules of origin in the USMCA violates comparative advantage theory in international trade,which may bring the reconstruction effect,trade transfer effect and investment transfer effect of RVC in North America.Third,the discriminatory non - market economy clause introduced by the USMCA may hinder China ’ s FTA negotiations with North American countries,and even worse,similar provisions may be crammed into other agreements.Fourth,based on the GTAP simulation results,actively integrating into regional trade will help promote China ’ s economic growth,but the USMCA may also hinder China ’ s entry into FTAAP and have a negative impact on China ’ s economic growth.Though the USMCA itself seems to have limited spillover effect on countries outside the region,China should pay more attention to the discriminatory provisions it introduces.China should take countermeasures such as promoting the WTO reform process and actively partipating in FTA negotiations.

关 键 词：《美墨加协定》 北美区域价值链 原产地规则 非市场经济规则 GTAP模型 

分 类 号：F744[经济管理—国际贸易]