中国制造业劳动生产率增长动能转换:资本驱动还是技术驱动  

What Drives the Transformation of Labor Productivity Growth in China's Manufacturing Industry: Capital or Technology

作　　者：王家庭[1] 李艳旭 马洪福 曹清峰[2] WANG Jia-ting;LI Yan-xu;MA Hong-fu;CAO Qing-feng(Research Center of China Urban and Regional Economies, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China;Institute of Modern Economic and Management, Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, Tianjin 300222,China)

机构地区：[1]南开大学中国城市与区域经济研究中心 [2]天津财经大学现代经济管理研究院

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2019年第5期99-117,共19页China Industrial Economics

摘　　要：制造业的高质量发展与中国现代化经济体系建设息息相关。本文在考虑到区域与行业具有异质性的情况下,运用反事实方法与非参数方法中的核密度估计方法,估算出了各省份以及分行业劳动生产率增长的驱动力,并探究了制造业增长动能的转换过程。整体上看,支撑中国制造业保持稳定增长的动能正逐步由资本驱动转向技术驱动;中国制造业劳动生产率增长呈现"低水平双驱动—资本驱动—高水平双驱动—技术驱动"的动能转换过程。区域层面看,制造业劳动生产率增长存在明显的区域差异,呈现"东部稳定、中西部快速发展"的趋势,同时,东部地区的技术驱动优势一直领先于中西部地区,引领着中国制造业增长动能转换。行业层面看,不同类型的制造业行业劳动生产率、增长动能和动能转换路径也存在显著差异;现阶段,中国制造业行业增长的技术驱动特征逐渐显现,制造业行业整体呈现出技术驱动。基于以上结论以及经济发展事实,本文认为技术或创新是实现制造业高质量发展的核心驱动力。未来需要在考虑区域或行业异质性基础上,通过对生产要素的再配置促进制造业生产率增长,实现制造业整体生产效率的提升和高质量发展。The high-quality development of manufacturing industry is closely related to the construction of China’s modern economic system. Considering the regional and industrial heterogeneity, this paper employs the counterfactual method and the nonparametric kernel density method to estimate the driving forces of labor productivity growth in each province and sub-sector in order to study the manufacturing industry’s transformation process. In the general, the driving force that supports the steady growth of China’s manufacturing industry has been gradually changing from capital to technology. The driving force in different transformation process is capital and technology in low-level stage, capital, capital and technology in high-level stage and technology in turn. In terms of regional differences, the manufacturing industry’s labor productivity growth is steady in east region and rapid in middle-west region. Meanwhile, the east region dominates the middle-west region in terms of technology driven growth and plays a leading role in manufacturing industry’s transformation process. Besides, the differences of labor productivity, driving force and transformation process in various manufacturing industries are also significant and the role of technology is becoming more and more important at the present stage. Based on above conclusions and economic development facts, this paper argues that technology or innovation is the key driving force for China to achieve high-quality development of manufacturing. Hence, after considering the regional and industrial heterogeneity, it is necessary to promote the productivity growth and high-quality development of manufacturing industry by the re-allocation of production factors.

关 键 词：制造业 劳动生产率 动能转换 资本驱动 技术驱动 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济]