金融监管与金融创新的共同演化分析——一个基于非线性动力学的金融监管分析框架  

An Evolutionary Analysis of Financial Innovation and Regulation

作　　者：许文彬[1] 赵霖 李志文[3] XU Wenbin;ZHAO Lin;LEE Jevons(Department of Finance, School of Economics, Xiamen University;Department of Economics, Duke University;Freeman School of Business, Tulane University)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院金融系,361005 [2]杜克大学经济学系 [3]杜兰大学弗里曼商学院

出　　处：《经济研究》2019年第5期81-97,共17页Economic Research Journal

摘　　要：本文利用演化经济学的思想和动力学方法研究金融创新的扩散及其与金融监管共同演化的路径和结果,论证了在三种不同监管策略下金融创新与监管共同演化的路径,指出随金融创新扩散程度而渐次展开的一阶监管策略更有助于实现监管目标和市场稳定。本文还考虑了存在时滞的监管策略,进一步论证了监管对金融创新扩散的影响以及监管策略的有效性。最后,总结了理论论证的政策启示,即监管者对市场动态的切实把握和平稳可预期的监管政策是实现市场稳定的关键。China's financial market has experienced drastic volatility since 2015. Turbulence has affected not only the stock market, which has been depressed for nearly four years, and the bond market, which witnessed a 337% increase in default events in 2017, but also the emerging online-based financial innovation market. For instance, 1,279 peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms involving RMB143.4 billion ceased functioning in 2018 alone. Other innovative tools and institutions such as third-party payment, Internet banking, crowdfunding, and cryptocurrencies have also experienced continuous market shocks. To combat the turbulence, China's policy-makers have prioritized risk control. In 2017, President XI Jinping declared that China would “firmly defend the bottom line of systemic financial risks”, naming this the first of “three tough battles” to be fought in the following three years. For implementation, financial regulators, led by the People's Bank of China, have over the past two years strengthened related efforts, including emphasizing regulations on financial innovations. Therefore, how to balance financial innovations and regulations-allowing innovations to continue to develop while mitigating their negative impacts-has become a mutual concern of regulators and general market participants. Financial innovations and regulations are generally considered opposite sides of the same coin. Financial innovations are developed in an effort to sidestep regulations, while regulators seek to bring these innovative products or institutions back in line through corresponding rule-making. This represents a short-run trade-off, where stricter regulations lead to slower innovation development. In the long run, however, it could serve as a mechanism of mutual promotion if regulators implement proper strategies. Based on the perspective of evolutionary economics and using nonlinear dynamics methodology, we try to identify these proper strategies by separately considering the dynamics of financial innovation diffusion and the

关 键 词：金融创新 金融监管 共同演化 非线性动力学 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]