省域旅游环境承载潜力测评  

Evaluation on Tourism Environment Bearing Potential of Provincial Areas

作　　者：杨秀平[1,2] 翁钢民[2] 张雪梅[1] Yang Xiuping;Weng Gangmin;Zhang Xuemei(School of Economics and Management, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou 730050, China;School of Economics andManagement, Yanshan University, Qinhuangdao Hebei 066040, China)

机构地区：[1]兰州理工大学经济管理学院,兰州730050 [2]燕山大学经济管理学院,河北秦皇岛066004

出　　处：《统计与决策》2019年第8期44-48,共5页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家自然科学青年基金项目(41501597);教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(11XJC630016);甘肃省社会科学界联合会研究规划项目"(16-007E);兰州理工大学红柳一流学科扶持方向

摘　　要：旅游环境承载潜力是影响旅游业可持续发展的重要因素之一,旅游环境承载潜力的测评是目的地旅游规划的重要环节。文章以省域为背景,从概念的界定与省域旅游环境承载状况分析,界定旅游环境承载潜力的内涵;基于供需视角,构建旅游环境承载潜力指标体系,利用改进层次分析法设定权重;基于系统动力学理论,构建旅游环境承载潜力测评的系统动力学模型;以甘肃省为例,进行旅游环境承载潜力的系统动力学仿真。Tourism environment carrying potential is one of the important factors affecting the sustainable development of tourist industry. The assessment of the tourism environment carrying potential is an important link of the destination tourism planning. This paper takes the provincial areas as the background and defines the connotation of tourism environment carrying potential according to the definition of the concept and the analysis on the carrying capacity of the provincial tourism environment. And then based on the perspective of supply and demand, the paper constructs the index system of tourism environment carrying potential, and uses improved analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to set up weight. Finally, the paper relies on the theory of system dynamics to construct the system dynamics model of tourism environment carrying potential evaluation, and also takes Gansu Province as an example to carry out the system dynamics simulation of tourism environment bearing potential.

关 键 词：旅游环境承载潜力 改进层次分析法 系统动力学 甘肃省 

分 类 号：F590.8[经济管理—旅游管理]