公共债务率和政府赤字率的动态分析  

Dynamical Analysis on Public Debt Ratio and Government Deficit Ratio

作　　者：韩俊宇 王冰 Han Junyu;Wang Bing(China Wealth Management Registry & Custody Co., Ltd., Beijing 100045, China;Software Development Center, China PostGroup Co., Ltd., Beijing 100096, China)

机构地区：[1]银行业理财登记托管中心,北京100045 [2]中国邮政集团公司软件开发中心,北京100096

出　　处：《统计与决策》2019年第8期151-156,共6页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家留学基金委员会资助项目(2010687004)

摘　　要：文章旨在利用贝叶斯TVAR模型以评估宏观经济冲击对公共债务率(即债务/GDP)以及政府赤字率(即政府赤字/GDP)变化的影响是否因经济条件的不同而不同。结果表明:消费者信心指数对经济周期变化是敏感的,且会影响我们对公共债务率和政府赤字率的预测;宏观经济冲击对政府赤字率的影响在衰退期更显著,但在繁荣期更持久;当经济不景气时,降低公共债务率和政府赤字率最有效的方法是刺激经济和消费者信心,或进行财政整顿。This paper aims to use Bayes TV AR model to evaluate whether the impact of macroeconomic shocks on changes in public debt ratio (i.e. debt /GDP) and government deficit ratio (i.e. government deficit /GDP) varies with different economic conditions. The results show that the consumer confidence index is sensitive to changes in the economic cycle, and affects our forecasts of public debt ratio and government deficits ratio;the impact of macroeconomic shocks on government deficit ratio is more pronounced in recessions, but more persistent in booms;when the economy is depressed, the most effective way to reduce public debt and government deficits is to spur the economy and consumer confidence, or to undertake fiscal consolidation.

关 键 词：TVAR模型 公共债务率 政府赤字率 经济刺激 财政整顿 

分 类 号：F820.2[经济管理—财政学]