智能变电站控制系统多尺度失效性预测研究  

Research on multi-scale failure prediction of intelligent substation control system

作　　者：李莉[1] 师鹏 赵建利 杨丽[1] LI Li;SHI Peng;ZHAO Jianli;YANG Li(School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Shijiazhuang College, Shijiazhuang 050000, China;Propaganda Department, Hebei Vocational College of Rail Transportation, Shijiazhuang 050000, China;Hebei Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid, Shijiazhuang 050000, China)

机构地区：[1]石家庄学院机电学院,河北石家庄050000 [2]河北轨道交通职业技术学院宣传部,河北石家庄050000 [3]国网河北省电力公司电力科学研究院,河北石家庄050000

出　　处：《实验技术与管理》2019年第5期138-143,共6页Experimental Technology and Management

基　　金：河北省科技厅资助项目(15210340);石家庄市科技局资助项目(141131231A);河北省教育厅重点资助项目(ZD2018308);石家庄学院应用型课程资助项目(YYKC-201715)

摘　　要：通过系统失效度计算、难度指数与方差关系的计算、难度对信度与效度的影响分析、多尺度区域划分,构建了智能变电站控制系统多尺度失效性预测模型。以某220 kV智能变电站为例,对智能变电站的系统失效因素合集,进行多尺度几何分析方法正变换,对变换后系数采用不同的融合策略进行处理。实验结果表明,当被测器件出现较严重的故障,被控系统很可能出现严重故障,与实际相符。By calculating the system failure degree and the relationship between difficulty index and variance, analyzing the influence of difficulty on reliability and validity, and dividing multi-scale regions, a multi-scale failure prediction model of intelligent substation control system is constructed. By taking a 220 kV intelligent substation as an example, the system failure factors of the intelligent substation are aggregated, the forward transformation of the multi-scale geometric analysis method is carried out, and the transformed coefficients are processed by different fusion strategies. The experimental results show that when serious faults occur in the device under test, serious faults are likely to occur in the controlled system, which is consistent with the actual situation.

关 键 词：智能变电站 失效预测 模糊概率 

分 类 号：TM63[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]