“热钱”流入对外汇储备的影响研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析  

Empirical Research on Impact of Hot Money on Foreign Exchange Reserve:Based on VAR Model

作　　者：朱德忠[1] 朱方正 ZHU De-zhong;ZHU Fang-zheng(Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu,Anhui,233030,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学,安徽蚌埠233000

出　　处：《武汉商学院学报》2019年第2期43-47,共5页Journal of Wuhan Business University

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目<新常态下中国对外净资产变动的影响因素;最优规模和动态效应研究>(项目编号:15CJY085)

摘　　要：借鉴国际间"热钱"问题研究的相关学术成果,揭示了中国外汇储备规模近期变化与短期游资流动的关系。通过建立VAR模型,实证分析了国际"热钱"流动对中国外汇储备的影响程度,进而认为当前"热钱"频繁流动对外汇储备产生了显著且不利的影响,由此提出了进一步发展国内金融市场、建立国际游资评价体系、加大反洗钱力度与强化国际合作等政策措施,以期对优化国际游资管控有所助益,藉此减低"热钱"对我国外汇储备的负面冲击。With the reference of the research of Chinese and international scholars on hot money, the paper studies the relationship between the recent changes of foreign exchange reserve and international hot money flow in China. Based on the VAR model, this study empirically analyses the impact of hot money flow on China’s foreign exchange reserve, and concludes that the frequent flow of hot money has a significantly adverse impact on foreign exchange reserve. So it puts forward some policy measures, such as developing domestic financial market, establishing hot money evaluation system, increasing anti-money-laundering(AML) measures and strengthening international cooperation in order to optimize control of international fluid capital. It is intended to reduce the negative impact of hot money on foreign exchange reserves.

关 键 词：热钱 外汇储备 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]