二次系统隐性故障的多指标综合风险评估  

Multi-criteria integrated risk assessment of secondary system hidden failures

作　　者：周虎兵 张焕青 杨增力 李君 王晶 殷建军[2] ZHOU Hubing;ZHANG Huanqing;YANG Zengli;LI Jun;WANG Jing;YIN Jianjun(State Grid Hubei Electric Power Company,Wuhan 430077,China;Beijing Sifang Automation Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100085,China)

机构地区：[1]国网湖北省电力有限公司,湖北武汉430077 [2]北京四方继保自动化股份有限公司,北京100085

出　　处：《电力系统保护与控制》2019年第9期120-127,共8页Power System Protection and Control

基　　金：国网湖北省电力公司项目资助(26150515003C);国家自然科学基金项目资助(51207113)~~

摘　　要：针对二次系统隐性故障可能引发的连锁故障,提出了一种多指标综合风险评估方法。采用马尔科夫状态空间转移方法,求解系统处于不同状态的时变概率及平稳概率。将平稳概率与距离保护相结合,构造反映系统隐性故障的模型。从电网容量、电网用户、电网稳定性3个方面建立电源孤立、负荷切除以及电网解列的风险指标,加权得到反映连锁性故障的综合风险指标。建立了基于蒙特卡洛抽样算法的风险评估体系,并通过具体的算例对多指标风险评估的方法应用进行展示。A multi-index comprehensive risk assessment method is proposed to deal with the possible chain failures caused by hidden failures in secondary systems.The Markov state space transfer method is used to solve the time-varying probability and stationary probability of the system in different states.In this paper,a combination of stationary probability and distance protection is used to construct a model to reflect the hidden failures of the system.From three aspects of power grid capacity,power grid users and power grid stability,the risk criteria of isolation,load excision and disassembly of power grid are set up,and the integrated risk criteria is weighted to reflect the cascading failures.A risk assessment system based on Monte Carlo sampling algorithm is established to solve the above criteria,and a specific example is given to demonstrate the multi-criteria risk assessment of the secondary system hidden failures.

关 键 词：隐性故障 马尔科夫状态空间 综合风险指标 蒙特卡洛抽样算法 

分 类 号：TP277[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]