基于多品牌产品扩散模型的智能手机销量仿真预测  

SMARTPHONE SALES SIMULATION AND PREDICTION BASED ON MULTI-BRAND PRODUCTS DIFFUSION MODEL

作　　者：乔健[1] 刘梦莉 王攀 Qiao Jian;Liu Mengli;Wang Pan(School of Management,Northwestern Polytechnical University,Xi’an 710072,Shaanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学管理学院,陕西西安710072

出　　处：《计算机应用与软件》2019年第5期275-280,共6页Computer Applications and Software

基　　金：陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2018JM7001);陕西省哲学社会科学规划项目(13Q107);西北工业大学研究生创意创新种子基金项目(ZZ2018035)

摘　　要：智能手机品牌众多、竞争激烈,其扩散过程受产品、消费者及社会环境等多种因素的影响。目前,能准确预测智能手机销量走势的多品牌产品扩散模型还十分欠缺。鉴于此,运用多Agent理论和模糊推理技术,提出一种将上述影响因素有机结合的多品牌产品扩散模型。仿真结果表明,该模型可以较好地预测四种品牌智能手机十五年的销量走势。该研究既丰富和发展了创新扩散理论,又可为相关企业的产品营销提供决策参考。There are many brands of smartphones,and the competition between them is very fierce.Its diffusion process is impacted by many factors coming from products,consumers and their social environment.At present,there is still a lack of multi-brand product diffusion model which can accurately predict the trend of smartphone sales.In view of this,this paper proposed a multi-brand product diffusion model which combined the above factors by using multi-agent theory and fuzzy reasoning.The simulation results show that the model can predict the 15 years of sales trends of four brands of smartphones.This research not only enriches and develops the innovation diffusion theory,but also provides decision-making reference for related enterprises'product marketing.

关 键 词：多品牌产品 扩散模型 智能手机 预测 模糊推理 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]