认知偏差下地铁施工中未遂事件影响及预防分析  

The Analysis of the Near-Miss’s Influence and Prevention in Subway Construction Under the Cognitive Biases

作　　者：郭庆军[1] 闫竑宇 李伟[1] 赵鑫 郝倩雯 贾哲 GUO Qingjun;YAN Hongyu;LI Wei;ZHAO Xin;HAO Qianwen;JIA Zhe(School of Civil and Architecture Engineering,Xi’an Technological University Xi’an 710021)

机构地区：[1]西安工业大学建筑工程学院,西安710021

出　　处：《工业安全与环保》2019年第5期72-75,共4页Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection

基　　金：陕西省软科学研究计划(2018KRM078);国家自然科学基金(51374165)

摘　　要：针对目前地铁施工过程中存在的具有隐患特质的未遂事件、忽略隐式证据等现象,从认知偏差角度发掘隐式证据;标准化未遂事件,通过文本挖掘识别黑暗事件(残缺事件和隐藏事件),与完整事件组成未遂事件库;将未遂事件梳理成初始未遂事件链,通过数理统计方法,探寻机会因素影响下未遂事件的影响因素、方式和两类事件网,并分级未遂事件;制定预防机制,采用蜜罐技术和权变管理进行未遂事件双重预防设计,应用可靠性对预防效果进行动态测度,借助韧性评价进行实时监控,验证预防措施效果。通过分析,完善"隐患即事故"的理念和方法,丰富和发展地铁工程安全管理理论,为提升地铁安全管理水平提出有效建议。In view of the existing phenomenon of Near-Miss with characters of hidden danger and ignored implicit evidence during the subway construction,the implicit evidence is discovered from the angle of cognitive biases.Standardized Near-miss and the dark events(incomplete events and hidden events)recognized by data mining,consist of the library of Near-miss.Unaccomplished events are combed into an initial unaccomplished chain,to explore the influencing factors,ways and two kinds of event networks under the influence of opportunity factors with the method of mathematical statistics,which can make near-miss classified.The prevention mechanism is set up and a double prevention design of near-miss is conducted by using honeypot technology and contingency theory of management,in which the dynamic measure of the preventive effect is carried out by using the reliability method and the real-time monitoring is conducted with the help of toughness evaluation,to verify the effect of preventive measures.Through analysis,the concept and method of“hidden danger is accident”are perfected,and the safety management theory of metro engineering is enriched and developed,which has put forward some effective suggestions for improving the safety management level of subway.

关 键 词：未遂事件 认知偏差 黑暗事件 机会因素 

分 类 号：U231.3[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]