基于小波分析的华北地区近61年降水变化特征  

Characteristics of Precipitation Change in North China in Recent 60 Years Based on Wavelet Analysis

作　　者：金钊 范伟[2,3] JIN Zhao;FAN Wei(Hefei City Meteorological Bureau,Hefei,Anhui 230041;Anhui Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Hefei,Anhui 230031;Anhui Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Sciences andSatellite Remote Sensing,Hefei,Anhui 230031)

机构地区：[1]安徽省合肥市气象局,安徽合肥230041 [2]安徽省气象科学研究所,安徽合肥230031 [3]安徽省大气科学与卫星遥感重点实验室,安徽合肥230031

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2019年第10期197-199,203,共4页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：采用中国气象局整编的1951—2011年华北地区26个气象站点(113.5°~120.0°E、36.0°~42.5°N)降水系列资料,采用墨西哥帽小波函数,对华北地区61年年度降水和各个季节降水进行小波分析,揭示华北地区历年降水量在各个时间尺度上的变化结构,并分析各个降水周期以及周期之间的降水突变点。结果表明,华北地区年降水量在16~18年尺度上存在明显的正负变化波动,为主要周期;其次在6~8年时间尺度上也出现了较为明显的时间变化现象,为次要周期。对比夏季降水和年降水小波变化发现,在不同时间尺度的周期特征有很高的相似性,说明夏季降水很大程度决定年降水周期变化特征。小波分析的时间频率变化特征可展示降水时间序列变化的细节,为分析气候变化规律、中长期气候预测以及水利发展规划提供科学依据。Using the data series of 26 meteorological stations (113.5°~120.0°E, 36.6°~42.5°N) compiled by the China Meteorological Administration from 1951 to 2011, wavelet analysis of annual precipitation and seasonal precipitation in 61 years in North China was carried out by the Mexican hat wavelet function,the structure of precipitation over the years in North China had been revealed at various time scales, and the precipitation peaks in the various precipitation cycles and between the cycles were analyzed.The results showed that the annual precipitation in North China had obvious positive and negative fluctuations on the 16~18-year scale, which was the main cycle.Secondly, there was a significant time change phenomenon on the 6-8 year time scale, which was a secondary cycle.Comparing the summer precipitation and annual precipitation wavelet changes, the periodic characteristics of different time scales had high similarity, indicating that summer precipitation largely determined the characteristics of annual precipitation period.The time-frequency variation characteristics of wavelet analysis can show the details of precipitation time series changes, and provide scientific basis for analyzing climate change law, medium- and long-term climate prediction and water development planning.

关 键 词：降水 变化特征 小波分析 华北地区 

分 类 号：S161.6[农业科学—农业气象学]