龙滩水电站汛期分期及合理性检验  

Flood Season Staging and Its Rationality Verification for Longtan Hydropower Station

作　　者：陈立华[1,2,3] 潘子豪 刘为福 滕翔 CHEN Lihua;PAN Zihao;LIU Weifu;TENG Xiang(College of Civil Engineering, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, Guangxi, China;Guangxi Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Engineering Safety, Nanning 530004, Guangxi, China;Cooperative Innovation Center for Major Projects and Disaster Prevention and Mitigation in Beibu Gulf,Nanning 530004, Guangxi, China)

机构地区：[1]广西大学土木建筑工程学院,广西南宁530004 [2]广西防灾减灾与工程安全重点实验室,广西南宁530004 [3]北部湾重大工程与防灾减灾协同创新中心,广西南宁530004

出　　处：《水力发电》2019年第5期17-21,共5页Water Power

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2017YFC0405900);国家自然科学基金项目(51669003);广西重点研发项目(桂科AB16380284)

摘　　要：合理的汛期分期是提出分期汛限水位决策意见的重要前提,对充分发挥水电站防洪、发电、生态、压咸能力及提高洪水资源利用率有重要意义。为此,研究运用矢量统计法和模糊集合分析法对龙滩水电站进行汛期分期计算,通过相对频率计算、置信区间计算、非参数统计自助法取样和模糊优选4步对汛期分期进行合理性检验。经检验后可知,相对优属度最高、较合理的汛期分期方案:龙滩水电站前汛期为4月1日～6月9日,主汛期为6月10日～9月1日,后汛期为9月2日～10月31日。Reasonable flood season staging is an important precondition for determining limited water levels by stages, and has important implications for giving full play to the ability of flood control, electricity generation, ecology and salinity control of hydropower station and improving the utilization rate of flood resources. To this end, the vector statistics and fuzzy set analysis are used to calculate the flood stage of Longtan Hydropower Station, and the rationality verification of flood season staging is carried out through four steps of fractional frequency calculation, confidence interval calculation, non-parametric statistical bootstrap Sampling and fuzzy optimum selection. It is confirmed after verification that the staging scheme with highest relative optimal degree and more reasonable scheme of flood season is the pre-flood season of Longtan Hydropower Station being from April 1 to June 9, the major flood season being from June 10 to September 1, and the later flood season being from September 2 to October 31.

关 键 词：汛期分期 合理性检验 矢量统计法 模糊集合分析法 龙滩水电站 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]