两次人口红利与消费不足——基于动态优化模型的实证分析  

Two Demographic Dividends and Insufficient Consumption——Empirical Analysis Based on Dynamic Optimization Model

作　　者：王树[1] WANG Shu(Development Institute,Yunnan University,Kunming 650091,China)

机构地区：[1]云南大学发展研究院

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2019年第6期99-107,共9页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(15BJL092)

摘　　要：文章通过动态优化模型进行了数理分析,并利用1989-2017年的面板数据模型进行了检验。研究发现:预期寿命的增加会显著降低居民消费率,少儿抚养比的降低抑制了居民消费率的增加,而老年抚养比的增加同样抑制了居民消费,运用面板Var模型发现少儿抚养比对消费率具有先促进后抑制的效应;而老年抚养比与消费率的关系则呈现先抑制后促进的演化过程。文章基于两次人口红利的视角分析消费不足的原因,为我国经济政策的制定提供启示。This paper makes a mathematical analysis through the dynamic optimization model,and the panel data model of 1989-2017 is tested. The study found that the increase of life expectancy will significantly reduce the consumption rate of resi dents,the decrease of child dependency ratio inhibits the increase of consumption rate,while the increase of elderly dependen cy ratio also inhibits the consumption of residents. Using panel Var model,we found that child dependency ratio has the effect of first promoting and then inhibiting consumption rate;while the relationship between elderly dependency ratio and consump tion rate shows the evolution of first inhibiting and then promoting. This paper uses the perspective of two demographic divi dends to analyze the causes of under consumption, which provides some enlightments for the formulation of China’spopulation economic policy.

关 键 词：两次人口红利 消费不足 动态优化模型 面板向量回归模型 

分 类 号：F126[经济管理—世界经济] F222.34