县域企业生存时间及其影响因素研究——以福建省罗源县为例  

Study on the Survival Time and Determinants Analysis of County Enterprises ——Taking Luo-yuan County of Fujian Province as An Example

作　　者：陈晓平 杨云波 CHEN Xiao-ping;YANG Yun-bo(College of Mathematics and Informatics,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350117 ,China)

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学数学与信息学院,福建福州350117

出　　处：《福建师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2019年第3期17-23,共7页Journal of Fujian Normal University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(11601083;11701088);福建省自然科学基金资助项目(2016J05002;2018J05003);福建省高等学校科技创新团队培育计划(IRTSTFJ);福建师范大学创新团队基金(IRTL1704)

摘　　要：发现企业生存时间属于删失数据,并运用Kaplan-Meier估计描绘了企业的生存曲线.基于Cox比例风险模型,实证结果表明注册资本、产业类别、企业类别和企业类型对企业生存存在显著影响.注册资本越高,企业生存时间越长;第三产业生存时间更长;农专生存时间比私营企业和内资企业更长;国有企业比其它4种企业生存时间更长.提出重点关注存在"瓶颈期"的企业,实施中小企业所得税优惠等政策,优化市场资源配置,大力发展民营企业等政策建议,旨在激发企业活力,降低企业死亡率,实现民营企业与国有企业共同健康成长.This paper finds that the survival time of enterprise is censored data,and uses Kaplan-Meier estimation to describe the survival curve of the enterprise.By Cox proportional hazards model,this paper shows that the registered capital,industrial category,enterprise category and enterprise type have significant influence on the survival time of enterprises.The greater the registered capital,the longer enterprises survive.Enterprises in the tertiary industry are longer than others.Rural professional cooperatives are longer than private and domestic enterprises.State-owned enterprises live longer than the others.This paper proposes that we should focus on the "bottleneck" of the enterprises,implement policies such as the preferential income tax of medium-sized and small enterprises,optimize the allocation of market resources,develop the private enterprises,and so on.The aim is to stimulate the vitality of enterprises,reduce the mortality of enterprises,and realize the common healthy growth of private enterprises and state-owned enterprises.

关 键 词：县域企业 生存时间 删失数据 Kaplan-Meier估计 COX比例风险模型 

分 类 号：O213[理学—概率论与数理统计]