长江经济带房地产业景气指数测算与时空特征分析  

Measurement of Real Estate Prosperity index and Analysis of Time and Space Characteristics in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

作　　者：吴传清[1,2,3] 邓明亮[1,2] WU Chuan-qing;DENG Ming-liang(School of Economics and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, China;Regional Economic ResearchCenter, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China;China Main Functional Area Strategy Research Institute, WuhanUniversity, Wuhan 430072, China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,武汉430072 [2]武汉大学区域经济研究中心,武汉430072 [3]武汉大学中国主体功能区战略研究院,武汉430072

出　　处：《湖北经济学院学报》2019年第3期42-50,127-128,共10页Journal of Hubei University of Economics

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2042018kf1025)(2042019kf1005)

摘　　要：选取政策环境、宏观经济活动、市场供求3类指标,运用合成指数与扩散指数方法,测算我国31省份房地产业景气指数,并着重考察长江经济带沿线11省份房地产业景气状况和演变特征。研究结果表明,2016年以来,长江经济带沿线11省份房地产业运行状态良好,并存在周期性特征;房地产业景气指数受先行、同步、滞后指标的复杂影响。促进长江经济带房地产业稳定健康发展,有必要加强风险防范和市场监管,同时增加保障性住房和普通商品住房有效供给,落实地方各级人民政府责任,充分发挥房地产政策调控作用。The three indicators of policy environment, macroeconomic activity and market supply and demand are selected. The composite index and diffusion index method are used to measure the real estate prosperity index of 31 provinces in China, and the real estate boom conditions and evolution characteristics of the 11 provinces along the Yangtze River Economic Belt are highlighted. The re? search results show that since 2016, the real estate industry in the 11 provinces along the Yangtze River Economic Belt is in good oper? ating condition and has periodic characteristics;the real estate industry prosperity index is affected by the complex, leading, and lagging indicators. To promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, it is necessary to strengthen risk prevention and market supervision, increase the effective supply of affordable housing and ordi? nary commodity housing, implement the responsibility of local people's governments at all levels, and give full play to the role of re? al estate policy regulation.

关 键 词：长江经济带 房地产景气指数 时空特征 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学] F293.33