中国海洋经济绿色发展水平综合测度与时空演化研究  

An Analysis on the Comprehensive Measurements and Spatio-temporal Evolution of China′s Green Development of Marine Economy

作　　者：梁华罡 LIANG huagang(Liaoning Urban & Rural Construction & Planning Design Institute,Shenyang 110006,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁省城乡建设规划设计院有限责任公司,沈阳110006

出　　处：《海洋开发与管理》2019年第5期73-83,共11页Ocean Development and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41671119)

摘　　要：文章通过构建海洋经济绿色发展水平评价指标体系,利用集对分析法、Kernel密度估计函数及GIS空间分析技术对2006—2014年中国沿海11个省、市、自治区海洋经济绿色发展水平进行综合测度,并分析其动态演化趋势。研究结果表明:(1)通过集对分析法初步计算出2006—2014年中国沿海11个省、市、自治区海洋经济绿色发展水平总体呈现波动上升趋势。(2)通过Kernel密度估计模型计算得出,2006—2014年中国海洋经济绿色发展水平程度逐渐由地区之间均匀分布到两极分化分布的趋势,绿色发展高水平地区发展速度快于低水平地区。2006—2010年中国海洋经济绿色发展水平进程缓慢,2010—2014年绿色发展水平速度加快。(3)根据集对分析法计算的海洋经济绿色发展水平评价结果,采用自然断裂点法将中国沿海11个省、市、自治区海洋经济绿色发展水平划分为3类地区:上海、广东、天津为海洋经济绿色发展高水平地区;山东、福建、浙江、江苏、辽宁为海洋经济绿色发展中等水平地区;海南、河北、广西是海洋经济绿色发展低水平地区。By set pair analysis,the green economic development of 11 coastal provinces in China during 2006-2014 were analyzed with comprehensive measurements.Also,the Kernel density estimation model and GIS spatial analysis technology were utilized to study the tendency and rule of spatial-temporal evolution of green development of marine economy.Related policy suggestions were proposed to adapt to local conditions based on different levels of green development of marine economy in each province.The primary research achievements of the essay are as follow: First of all,the overall green development of marine economy in 11 coastal provinces in China during 2006-2014 period tends to rise volatility by means of the preliminary calculation of the set pair analysis.Secondly,it can be seen from the calculation of Kernel density estimation model that there was a trend which gradually spread from area to area and tow-level differentiation in 2006-2014.Development of high-level green areas was faster than low-levels areas in 2006-2014.There was a slowdown in the growing of green development of our national marine economy during 2006 to 2010,but there was speed up of the green development of marine economy during 2010 to 2014.Thirdly,in accordance with the set pair analysis,using the natural point fracture method evaluation result of the green development of marine economy was produced.The paper divided the 11 coastal provinces of China into 3 types of regions: Shanghai,Guangdong and Tianjin as the high-level regions of green development of marine economy;Shandong,Fujian,Zhejiang,Jiangsu and Liaoning as the middle level regions of green development of marine economy;Hainan,Hebei,Guangxi as regions of that low level of green development of marine economy.

关 键 词：海洋经济 绿色发展 集对分析法 Kernel密度估计 时空演化 

分 类 号：P7[天文地球—海洋科学]