中国进口贸易70年变迁与未来发展路径思考  

Chinese Import:Seventy-Year Evolution and Development Path in the Future

作　　者：庄芮[1,2] 杨超[3,4] 常远[3] ZHUANG Rui;YANG Chao;CHANG Yuan(University of International Business and Economics;University of International Business and Economics,Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation)

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济研究院 [2]对外经济贸易大学“一带一路”PPP发展研究中心 [3]对外经济贸易大学世界经济专业 [4]商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院

出　　处：《国际贸易》2019年第4期34-45,共12页Intertrade

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“东北亚命运共同体构建:中国的引领与行动”(项目编号:18ZDA129);对外经济贸易大学“一带一路”PPP发展研究中心项目阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：“主动扩大进口”是新时期我国对外开放的一项重大举措。本文系统分析了新中国成立70年来我国进口贸易的发展状况,特别基于联合国商品贸易数据库(UN COMTRADE)和中国海关统计数据,重点探讨了改革开放至今中国进口贸易的演进特点,包括进口规模和增速、进口商品结构、进口贸易方式、进口贸易主体和来源地等。笔者认为,当前我国进口贸易发展面临内外瓶颈:国际方面,贸易保护主义抬头,我国外贸发展环境相对恶化;国内方面,进口促进经验不足,相应政策体系还不完善。但我国进口贸易仍有巨大发展空间,因为经济发展方式转变和消费升级将为我国进口提供强大内需动力;经济“新常态”下,我国亟须激发进口对经济增长的促进效能;“一带一路”倡议不断推进和落实,为我国扩大进口创造无限商机。未来我国扩大进口,应重视三个方面:一是适度扩大消费品和中低技术产品进口,对高技术产品加强“进口替代”;二是结合“一带一路”建设推进贸易畅通,拓展进口市场;三是确立并完善进口促进政策体系,同时建立进口风险预警与防范机制。"Actively expanding imports" is an important endeavor of Chinese opening to the outside world in the new era. Based on the UN COMTRADE Database and Chinese Customs Statistics Database, this paper analyzes Chinese import during the 70 years, including the value and growth rate, goods structure, modes, entities and origins, etc. The author perceives that China’s import development is currently facing both internal and external bottle-necks. Externally, trade protectionism is prevailing so that China’s trade environment has relatively deteriorated. Internally, China lacks experience in imports promotion, and relevant policy system needs to be improved. However, there is still immense space for Chinese import for the reasons that transformation of Chinese economic growth model and consumption upgrading will provide strong incentives for imports, and that positive effects of imports on economic growth urgently need to be stimulated under the economic "new normal", and that unlimited business opportunities will be created for expanding imports with the implement of Belt and Road Initiative(BRI). In order to expand Chinese import in the future, three aspects should be paid much attention to. First, moderately expand imports of consumer goods and medium and low technology products, and enhance "import substitution" of high-tech products. Second, expand import markets along with the unimpeded trade development under BRI. Third, establish and improve the import promotion system, meanwhile build up import risk warning and prevention mechanism.

关 键 词：进口贸易 演进特点 增长瓶颈 扩大进口 

分 类 号：F752.61[经济管理—国际贸易]