南海夏季风强度潜在可预报性的年代际变化及可能原因  

Inter-decadal Changes in Potential Predictability of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Intensity and Possible Causes

作　　者：李娇[1,2,3] 丁瑞强 吴志伟[5] 秦箭煌 李保生 LI Jiao;DING Ruiqiang;WU Zhiwei;QIN Jianhuang;LI Baosheng(Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters of the Ministry of Education and Earth System Modeling Center,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029;Henan Province Climate Center,Zhengzhou 450003;Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225;Institute of Atmospheric Sciences,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433;School of Oceanography,Shanghai Jiaotong University,Shanghai 200030)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室,南京210044 [2]中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学与地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京100029 [3]河南省气候中心,郑州450003 [4]成都信息工程大学高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室,成都610225 [5]复旦大学大气科学研究院,上海200433 [6]上海交通大学海洋学院,上海200030

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2019年第3期302-312,共11页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金优秀青年科学基金项目41522502;“全球变化与海气相互作用”专项GASI-IPOVAI-06;国家科技支撑项目2015BAC03B07~~

摘　　要：基于NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,利用信噪比(SNR)方法研究了南海夏季风强度潜在可预报性的年代际变化,结果表明:南海夏季风强度潜在可预报性在20世纪80年代出现了由潜在可预报性偏低位相向偏高位相的年代际转折。进一步的研究发现,南海夏季风强度潜在可预报性和东印度洋-西太平洋(EIOWP)的海表温度(SST)存在明显的正相关。当EIOWP区域SST年际变率较大时,对南海夏季风影响较强,使得南海夏季风的外部信号增强,从而提高了潜在可预报性;当EIOWP区域SST年际变率较小时,对南海夏季风影响较弱,南海夏季风的外部信号进而减弱,潜在可预报性降低。Inter-decadal changes in potential predictability of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) intensity has been investigated using the signal to noise ratio method and based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data. The potential predictability of the SCSSM intensity underwent a significant decadal change from a low potential predictability to a high potential predictability in the 1980s, followed by a decreasing trend in the early 2000s. Further analysis shows that the inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the SCSSM intensity has a significant positive correlation with sea surface temperature (SST) of the East Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific (EIOWP). The EIOWP area averaged SST with a high (low) phase of its inter-annual variability would have strong (weak) influence on the SCSSM and hence enhance (weaken) the SCSSM signal. As a result, the potential predictability of the SCSSM intensity tends to be high (low).

关 键 词：南海夏季风强度 信噪比 潜在可预报性 年代际变化 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]