金融开放与实体经济和虚拟经济产出非平衡增长  

Financial Openness and Unbalanced Growth of Real Economy and Virtual Economy Outputs

作　　者：袁申国 刘兰凤[2] YUAN Shen-guo;LIU Lan-feng

机构地区：[1]广州大学经济与统计学院 [2]广东外语外贸大学南国商学院

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2019年第5期86-104,共19页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(17YJA790090);国家自然科学基金项目(71473278);广东省教育厅创新团队项目(2016WCXTD011)

摘　　要：文章针对中国金融开放逐步扩大背景下实体经济和虚拟经济出现显著非平衡发展的事实,尝试考察金融开放与实体经济和虚拟经济产出非平衡增长的关系。通过使用29个省市1996～2016年省际面板数据和两阶段工具变量回归方法估计发现,金融开放扩大显著提高了虚拟经济与实体经济产出之比。样本期间使用资本跨境流动总额衡量的事实金融开放度提高1%,促使中国虚拟经济与实体经济产出之比大约上升0. 70%。进一步分析发现,金融开放扩大显著提高了虚拟经济产出增长率,而对实体经济产出增长率的影响不十分明显甚至产生负面影响。当将金融开放分解为资本流入和资本流出两个子指标进行回归分析时得出的结论基本一致。In view of the unbalanced development of the real economy and virtual economy in the background of the gradual expansion of China’s financial openness,this paper attempts to probe into the relationship between financial openness and the unbalanced growth of the real economy and virtual economy outputs. Based on the provincial panel data of 29 provinces and municipalities from 1996 to 2016 and two-stage instrumental variable regression method,it is found that the expansion of financial openness significantly increases the ratio of virtual economy output to real economy output. During the sample period,the financial openness measured by total cross-border capital flows increases by 1%,resulting in an increase of about 0. 70% in the ratio of virtual economy output to real economy output in China. Further analysis reveals that the expansion of financial openness significantly increases the growth rate of virtual economy output,while its impact on the growth rate of real economy output is not very obvious or even negative. When the financial openness is decomposed into two indicators of capital inflow and capital outflow for regression analysis,the conclusions are basically the same.

关 键 词：金融开放 实体经济 虚拟经济 非平衡增长 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学] F061.2