基于灰色系统理论的火电机组3种实时数据的预测  

Forecast of three types of real-time data for fire power units based on grey system theory

作　　者：汤镭 王芳[1] TANG Lei;WANG Fang(School of Electrical Engineering,Shanghai Dianji University,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海电机学院电气学院,上海201306

出　　处：《上海电机学院学报》2019年第2期73-77,共5页Journal of Shanghai Dianji University

摘　　要：火电机组的各项数据参数由市场和电网等复杂因素决定,其中重要的运行参数包括发电负荷、主汽温度和再汽温度。为较精准地预测该3种参数的未来数值,针对某电厂中的1台350 MW机组的实时数据,利用灰色系统理论中的灰色预测方法,并基于灰色模型GM(1,1)建立数学模型,对运行数据进行预测仿真分析,其重要意义在于克服了参数的动态建模难的问题,方便监控人员针对发电机组的运行参数做出适当调整。结果表明:预测算法的精确度较好,并且可以为运行的优化起到辅助参考作用,具有较强的实用性。The parameters of thermal power units are determined by complex factors such as market and power grid.Among them,the important operating parameters include the power generation load,the main steam temperature and the resteam temperature.In order to predict the values of the three parameters more accurately,the gray prediction method in the gray system theory is used for analyzing the real-time data of a 350 MW unit in a power plant,and the mathematical model is established based on the gray model GM(1,1).The significance of the prediction simulation analysis of the running data lies in overcoming the difficulties of dynamic modeling of parameters and facilitating the operation of the monitoring personnel to make appropriate adjustments to the operating parameters of the generator set.The results show that the prediction algorithm has good accuracy,can play an auxiliary reference role in the optimization of the operation,and has a strong practicality.

关 键 词：热电机组 灰色系统理论 实时数据 灰色预测 灰色模型 仿真分析 

分 类 号：TM621[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]