基于系统动力学的海洋平台安全脆弱性分析  

Analysis on safety vulnerability of offshore platform based on system dynamics

作　　者：姜盛玉 陈国明[1] 李新宏[1] 何睿 董澈 JIANG Shengyu;CHEN Guoming;LI Xinhong;HE Rui;DONG Che(Center for Offshore Equipment and Safety Technology, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao Shandong 266580,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)海洋油气装备与安全技术研究中心,山东青岛266580

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2019年第5期49-54,共6页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划重点专项项目(2017YFC0804501);国家工信部第七代超深水钻井平台创新专项项目(工信部联装【2016】24号)

摘　　要：海洋平台承受着风、浪、流等复杂环境载荷,安全系统在保障平台安全稳定方面的作用极为突出。为深入探讨影响海洋平台安全脆弱性的机理,针对海洋平台作业环境的极端性和复杂性,建立了海洋平台的安全脆弱性系统动力学分析模型,采用模糊层次分析法确定影响安全系统中各层因素的权重系数,并设定参数,考虑子系统不同的安全投入方案,进行了海洋平台脆弱性系统分析。研究结果表明:海洋平台设备系统对于暴露度和敏感度的影响程度最高,管理系统对海洋平台安全系统的适应度起主导作用;当安全投入总值一定,对各系统的投入比例不同时,为有效降低海洋平台脆弱性,应合理分配有限投入资金。The offshore platform bore the complicated environmental load such as wind,wave and ocean current,so the safety system plays an important role in guaranteeing the safety and stability of platform. To deeply explore the mechanism of safety vulnerability for the offshore platform,aiming at the extremeness and complexity of the working environment of offshore platforms,a system dynamics analysis model on the safety vulnerability of offshore platform was established. The weight coefficients of each influencing factor of safety system were determined by using the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method,and the vulnerability system of offshore platform was analyzed through setting the parameters with considering different safety input schemes of the subsystems. The results showed that the influence degree of equipment system of the offshore platform on the exposure and sensitivity was the highest,and the management system played a leading role on the fitness of safety system of the offshore platform. When the total value of safety input was constant,in order to effectively reduce the vulnerability of offshore platform,the limited input funds should be allocated reasonably when the input proportion of each system was different.

关 键 词：海洋平台 安全系统 模糊数学 层次分析法 系统动力学 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]