两种高程坐标预测模型的精度对比分析  

Comparison and analysis of the accuracy of two elevation coordinate forecasting models

作　　者：张明敏 刘盼 周海龙 从建锋 ZHANG Mingmin;LIU Pan;ZHOU Hailong;CONG Jianfeng(School of Surveying and Mapping Science and Engineering,Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590,China)

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学测绘科学与工程学院

出　　处：《测绘工程》2019年第4期13-18,共6页Engineering of Surveying and Mapping

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41374009);青岛市博士后应用研究资助项目(2015186)

摘　　要：为提高IGS测站高程坐标预测精度,分别拟合两种时间序列模型:多项式周期模型与ARMA模型,选用我国及周边7个IGS站2013年的观测数据进行实验验证及对比分析。结果表明:两种模型的预报中误差均小于4.5 mm,可作为高程坐标预测的参考模型,同时,ARMA模型的预报精度较多项式周期模型的预报精度提升5%以上,且稳定性高于多项式周期模型,更加适合站点的坐标预报。In order to improve the accuracy of elevation coordinate prediction in IGS station, two time series models are fitted, respectively: polynomial periodic model and ARMA model, and the experimental verification and comparative analysis of 7 IGS stations in China and its surrounding IGS stations in 2013 are carried out. The results show that the prediction error of the two models is less than 4.5 mm, which can be used as a reference model for the prediction of elevation coordinates, meanwhile, the prediction accuracy of the ARMA model is more than 5% higher than that of the polynomial periodic model, and the stability is higher than that of the polynomial periodic model, which is more suitable for the site coordinate prediction.

关 键 词：IGS 时间序列 多项式拟合 ARMA模型 精度对比分析 

分 类 号：P228[天文地球—大地测量学与测量工程]