风险与机会对生态脆弱区农户多维贫困的影响——基于形成型指标的结构方程模型  

The Impact of Risks and Opportunities on Multidimensional Poverty of Farmers in Ecologically Vulnerable Areas:An Analysis Based on a Structural Equation Model with Formative Indicators

作　　者：王文略[1,2] 朱永甜 黄志刚 余劲 Wang Wenlue;Zhu Yongtian;Huang Zhigang;Yu Jin

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学经济管理学院 [2]甘肃农业大学财经学院

出　　处：《中国农村观察》2019年第3期64-80,共17页China Rural Survey

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“农村公共政策个体风险研判实验及拟合匹配研究”(项目编号:71573208)、“三权分置下农地流转个体偏好研判实验及政策演进研究”(项目编号:71874139);陕西省国际科技合作重点项目计划“秦巴山区精准扶贫模式构建及仿真技术引进”(项目编号:2015KW-053)的资助

摘　　要：生态脆弱区农户面临着更为严重的风险冲击和机会缺失,可持续发展能力不足,成为新阶段脱贫攻坚的重中之重。本文将风险、脆弱性、可持续生计等框架纳入统一的分析框架,基于形成型指标方法构建结构方程模型,探讨农户面临的风险和能够获得的发展机会对其生计资本及多维贫困的影响。研究结果表明,农户遭遇风险对其除自然资本以外的生计资本均有显著的负向影响,并且会显著加剧他们的多维贫困程度;农户能够获得的发展机会对其除自然资本以外的生计资本有显著的正向影响,并且会显著改善他们的多维贫困状态。Farmers in ecologically vulnerable areas are facing more serious risk shocks and have little opportunities and sustainable development capacity,which has become a most important task for poverty alleviation in the new stage.This article incorporates frameworks such as risk,vulnerability,and sustainable livelihood into a unified framework of analysis.Based on a formation index method,a structural equation model is constructed to explore the impact of the risks faced by farmers and the external opportunities on their livelihood capital and multidimensional poverty.The results show that the risks faced by farmers have a significant negative impact on their livelihood capital except natural capital,and will significantly increase the level of multidimensional poverty.The development opportunities available to farmers have a significant positive impact on their livelihood capital except natural capital,and can significantly improve their quality of life.

关 键 词：风险 机会 生计资本 可持续生计 结构方程 

分 类 号：F328[经济管理—产业经济]