基于PERT和蒙特卡洛法的建设工程完工概率分析  

Analysis of Completion Probability Based on PERT and Monte Carlo Method

作　　者：陈瑞[1] CHEN Rui(College of Science and Technology of China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学科技学院,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2019年第5期115-117,共3页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：湖北省自然科学基金项目(2014CFB670);湖北省建设科技计划项目(KJ2016QT012).

摘　　要：针对建设工程工期风险的分析方法(模糊网络计划、贝叶斯网络图、风险链、熵值法等)主要分析确定关键线路的完工概率,而不考虑非关键线路向关键线路转化的情况,采用蒙特卡洛法通过Excel对工序持续时间进行随机抽样,后经统计得到关键线路和总工期样本空间,计算各条关键线路的关键度指标,结合PERT法提出基于PERT和蒙特卡洛法的建设工程工期风险分析模型。实例分析表明,该方法考虑了多条线路成为关键线路的可能,相较传统MC法更贴合实际,可应用于工程实践。There are many methods (fuzzy network, Bayesian network, risk chain, entropy value method, etc.)to analyze the construction duration risk, which mainly analyzes the construction completion probability of the identified key lines without considering the transformation of non-critical path to the key path. In this paper, Monte Carlo method was used to randomly sample the duration of the processes through Excel. And then the sample space of the key paths and the total construction period were obtained through statistics. The key indicators of each key path were calculated. Finally, risk analysi s model of construction period was established based on the PERT and Monte Carlo method. Case study results show that this method considers the possibility of multiple lines becoming the key lines, which is more practical than the traditional MC method. Thus, it can be applied to engineering practice.

关 键 词：完工概率 蒙特卡洛法(MC法) PERT 工期 

分 类 号：TU721[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]