全球视角下中国葡萄酒税收政策改革的经济与福利效应——基于可计算局部均衡模型的研究  

The Economic and Welfare Effects of Tax Adjustments in the Chinese Wine Industry from a Global Perspective: A Study Based on a Computable Partial Equilibrium Model

作　　者：向洪金 徐振宇 李陈华 Xiang Hongjin;Xu Zhenyu;Li Chenhua

机构地区：[1]南京审计大学经济学院

出　　处：《中国农村经济》2019年第5期124-144,共21页Chinese Rural Economy

摘　　要：近年来,对中国葡萄酒行业进行税收政策改革呼声日高,然而没有文献对开放经济条件下其潜在经济影响做深入分析。本文基于可计算局部均衡模型和2016年全球葡萄酒生产与消费现状,重点从行业层面考察中国葡萄酒税收政策改革的经济与福利效应。模拟结果表明:第一,葡萄酒税收政策改革的产出与价格效应明显,中国葡萄酒产量年均将增加16.7%,生产者价格上升9.5%,而消费者价格下降15.6%,内销量增加22.9%。第二,葡萄酒税收政策改革将导致澳大利亚、智利等同中国签署自由贸易协定的国家葡萄酒对华出口量大幅增加,中国葡萄酒行业面临更大的市场竞争。第三,葡萄酒行业进行税收政策改革不仅可提高中国葡萄酒生产者与消费者福利水平,而且社会净福利水平也会增加;其中,葡萄酒消费者福利水平年增加近20.3亿美元,葡萄酒生产者福利水平年增加6.9亿美元,中国社会净福利水平年增加4.7亿美元。本文不仅可为中国葡萄酒税收政策改革提供理论与现实依据,也为专家学者研究产业政策的经济与福利效应提供了一个有力的分析工具。In recent years, there has been a growing demand for tax reform in China’s wine industry. However, very few in-depth analyses can be found on its potential economic and welfare impacts. Using a computable partial equilibrium model and data on the global wine production and consumption in 2016, this article estimates the economic and welfare effects of China’s wine tax reform at the industry level from a global perspective. The simulation results show that, first of all, the elimination of consumption tax and the reduction of value-added tax will greatly reduce the tax burden of Chinese wine enterprises, the wine production in China will increase by 16.7% annually, the producer price will increase by 9.5%, while the consumer price will fall by 15.6%, and the domestic sales will increase by 22.9%. The output and price effect of tax reform is obvious. Secondly, the tax reform in the wine industry will lead to a significant increase in wine exports from Australia, Chile and other countries that have signed free trade agreements with China, and the Chinese wine industry will face greater market competition. Thirdly, tax adjustments in the wine industry can not only improve the welfare level of Chinese wine producers and consumers, but also increase the social net welfare level. Chinese consumers will be the biggest beneficiaries and their welfare level will increase by nearly 2.03 billion US dollars annually. The welfare level of Chinese wine producers and the social net welfare level will increase by 690 million US dollars and 470 million US dollars annually, respectively. This study can not only provide theoretical and practical basis for China’s wine tax reform, but also provide an analytical tool for experts to study the economic and welfare effects of industrial policies.

关 键 词：葡萄酒税收政策调整 可计算局部均衡模型 经济与福利效应 

分 类 号：F320.3[经济管理—产业经济]