组合预测模型在我国体育产业发展水平预测中的应用  

Application of Combined Forecasting Model in Forecasting the Development Level of Sports Industry in China

作　　者：霍炎[1] HUO Yan(Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233030,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学

出　　处：《赤峰学院学报（哲学社会科学版）》2019年第5期54-57,共4页Journal of Chifeng University：Philosophy and Social Science Chinese Edition

基　　金：安徽省体育局体育社会科学重点研究项目(ASS2016117)

摘　　要：体育产业的发展越来越受到关注,利用我国1997年—2016年的体育产业增加值数据,基于预测误差平方和最小方法构建组合预测模型,通过平方和误差(SSE)、均方误差(MSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)、平方绝对百分比误差(MAPE)以及均方百分比误差(MSPE)五种误差评价指标展开的对比,结果表明组合预测模型具备相对良好的预测结果以及相对精准的预测精度。运用组合预测模型对2017年—2020年体育产业增加值进行预测分析。预估分析到2020年的时候,国内的体育产业增加值将超过万亿元,因此就可以很好地与“十三五”规划给定的要求相符。最后基于预测结果,提出建议,为政府制定相关政策提供参考。The development of the sports industry has received more and more attention. Researches have been done by using the value-added data of the sports industry in China from 1997 to 2016, and a combination prediction model was constructed based on the method of the minimum quadratic sum of the prediction errors. After the comparison of five error evaluation indicators, the sum of square error (SSE), mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), square absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean square percentage error (MSPE), the research results show that the combination prediction model has higher precision and better prediction results. Finally, the prediction analysis on the added value of the sports industry from 2017 to 2020 was carried out by using the combination forecasting model. It is believed that by 2020, the added value of China's sports industry will exceed one trillion Yuan, and this could meet the requirements of the "13th Five-Year Plan for the Sports Industry". In the end, based on the forecast results, suggestions are made to provide reference for the government to make relevant policies.

关 键 词：体育产业 组合预测 增加值 

分 类 号：G80-05[文化科学—运动人体科学]