货币同盟、全球化与经济周期协同性——最优货币区标准“内生性假说”的检验与解释  

Currency Union, Globalization and Business Cycle Synchronization——Test and Explanation on Endogenous Hypothesis of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria

作　　者：张军[1] 于晓宇[2] Zhang Jun;Yu Xiaoyu

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学经济学院 [2]东北财经大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2019年第5期45-54,共10页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"新常态下我国宏观经济监测和预测研究"(15ZDA011)资助

摘　　要：本文构建包含货币同盟、全球化以及经济周期协同性内在逻辑关系的联立方程模型,在此基础上,检验了最优货币区标准"内生性假说",并进一步立足经济全球化的三个视角(国际贸易、外商直接投资、产业分工)探究了内生性的来源渠道。研究结果显示,货币同盟的建立显著提高了成员国经济周期的协同性,经济周期的趋同也增加了成员国建立货币同盟的可能性,经济周期协同性标准的"内生性假说"得到验证。对内生源泉的检验发现,货币同盟会同时通过国际贸易、FDI和产业分工三种渠道对经济周期协同性产生间接促进机制,它们共同构成内生性的来源渠道。此外,本文还发现,经济周期协同性标准的"自我强化"效应在核心成员国内部明显更大。本文的研究有益补充了内生最优货币区理论的研究前沿,为中国未来进一步深化区域货币合作提供了有益的政策启示。This paper constructs a simultaneous equations model containing currency union, economic globalization and business cycle synchronization. On this basis, this paper first examines the"endogenous hypothesis"of the OCA criteria, and further explores the sources of endogeneity from the three aspects of globalization(international trade, FDI, industrial division). The results show that the establishment of currency union significantly improve the business cycle synchronization among member countries, and the convergence of business cycles also increase the possibility of member countries establishing currency unions, thus, the"endogenous hypothesis"of the OCA criteria has been verified. Examination of the sources of endogeneity indicates that currency union can exert indirect promotion effects on business cycle synchronization via international trade, FDI and industrial division;the three channels together constitute the sources of endogeneity. In addition, the paper also finds that the" self-reinforcing" effect of business cycle synchronization criteria is significantly larger within the core member countries of EU. This paper develops further related researches on endogenous OCA theory, and it’s also quite important for China’s deepening regional monetary cooperation.

关 键 词：货币同盟 经济周期协同性 全球化 联立方程模型 

分 类 号：F114.46[经济管理—国际贸易]