面向气象指数保险的水果冰雹灾害灾损评估方法  

A Weather-index-based Insurance-oriented Method for Hail Disaster Assessment on Fruits Loss

作　　者：栾庆祖 董鹏捷[3] 叶彩华 LUAN Qing-zu;DONG Peng-jie;YE Cai-hua(Institute of Urban Meteorology, CMA, Beijing 100089, China;Beijing Municipal Climate Center, Beijing 100089;Beijing Tongzhouqu Meteorological Bureau, Beijing 101100)

机构地区：[1]北京城市气象研究院,北京100089 [2]北京市气候中心,北京100089 [3]北京市通州区气象局,北京101100

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2019年第6期402-410,共9页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：北京市气象局科技项目“北京地区生态价值演变遥感监测与驱动力分析(BMBKJ201704003)”;“气候品质认证与直通式气象服务链研究(BMBKJ201704011)”

摘　　要：冰雹灾害是农业生产面临的主要气象灾害之一,优化制约冰雹灾害指数保险产品设计的灾损评估方法,对于发展稳定、可持续的气象指数保险产品具有重要的科学价值,同时对大范围推广气象指数保险产品具有重要的指导意义。本研究结合气象指数保险产品的理赔指数设计的客观要求,提出了一种基于动量方程的水果冰雹灾害灾损评估方法。引入基于气象雷达观测的冰雹识别技术满足保险产品的理赔指数设计需求;通过分析果品在雹损过程中的受力关系,得到水果对冰雹撞击的敏感性参数,构建基于冰雹直径和初始风速的灾损评估模型,实现被冰雹撞击后对果品损伤物理特性的量化表达。以北京平谷大桃为例,对该方法用于冰雹灾害损失评估的可行性进行验证。结果表明,模型可以有效评估冰雹对桃品的损伤程度,是一种简单、快捷、高效的损失评估方法,基于此方法设计水果冰雹灾害气象指数保险产品具有可行性。Hail disaster is one of meteorological disasters threatening agricultural producing in China. Solving the problem of loss assessment methods that has been restraining index-based insurance production design for hail is of scientific value for developing stable and sustainable weather-index-based insurance(WII) productions, and also is of guiding significance for promoting WII productions in wide rang. Considering objective demanding of claiming index design for WII productions, a loss assessment method for fruits suffering from hail disaster was proposed based on momentum equation in this paper. The method satisfied claiming index design requirements for WII productions by introducing hail recognition technology relying on meteorological radar observation.And also, it revealed the disaster-causing mechanism of hail damage to fruits by attaining fruits’ sensitive parameters to hail crash, through analyzing the stress relation of fruits in the process of hail damage and quantifying fruits’ physical characteristics representation after crash by hail. Feasibility in application of loss assessment for hail was analyzed in the case of peaches growing in Pinggu district of Beijing. Results showed that the method was so simple, rapid and efficient that was able to assess peaches’ damage level caused by hail, based on which designing fruits WII productions for hail was practically viable.

关 键 词：果实硬度 临界破损直径 动量方程 气象指数保险 雹谱分布 

分 类 号：F842.66[经济管理—保险] F323.7[农业科学—植物保护] S427