经济增长、区域用水与空间溢出——基于空间面板STIRPAT模型的实证检验  

Economic growth,regional water use and spillover effects:empirical study based on spatial panel STIRPAT model

作　　者：王儒 季小梅[1] 诸裕良[1] WANG Ru;JI Xiaomei;ZHU Yuliang(College of Harbour,Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing210098, China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院

出　　处：《水利经济》2019年第3期13-19,85,共8页Journal of Economics of Water Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41506100)

摘　　要：为探究区域用水的空间特征及经济增长与区域用水的作用机制,构建空间面板STIRPAT模型,对全国以及东、中、西地区水资源利用与经济增长之间的关系进行实证分析。结果表明:我国水资源利用与经济增长存在较强的空间相关性,二者存在多种形态的EKC曲线关系;全国层面二者呈现为倒“N”型曲线关系,拐点出现在人均GDP 7 358.79元和60 668.53元,除少数东部地区外,大多数省区处于下降前的爬坡阶段;东部和中部地区二者分别近似地满足单调递减和递增的关系;西部地区二者关系呈现为倒“N”型形态,对应的人均GDP拐点分别为521.52元和35 225.87元,结合全国层面的测算结果,虽然短期内西部地区用水量会出现下降,但是经济发展与用水需求增长这一长期存在的“两难”困境并没有得到缓解。此外,不考虑空间自相关性的传统面板计量模型估计出的结果不存在EKC拐点,说明遗漏区域用水的空间自相关性会导致我国水资源利用峰值对应的人均GDP产生较大的偏误。To study the spatial features of regional water use and the mechanisms of economic growth and regional water use, the spatial panel STIRPAT model is introduced to analyze the relationship between the economic growth and the water use in the overall, eastern, central and western regions of China. The results show the economic growth and the water use in China are greatly spatially correlated, and they have several types of EKC curves. From the perspective of the overall level in China, the relationship between the economic growth and the water use exhibits an inverted “N-shaped” curve, with two turning points at 7358. 79 and 60668. 53 CNY GDP per capita, and the curve of most provinces is at the climbing stage before decline stage except a few eastern regions. The curves of the relationship between the economic growth and the water use in eastern and central regions monotonically decrease and increase, and those in the western regions also exhibit the inverted “N-shaped” ones with two turning points at 521. 52 and 35225. 87 CNY GDP per capita, indicating that although the water use will decline in short term, the economic development-water use dilemma will exist in long term according to the estimated results. Furthermore, there are no EKC turning points by using the traditional panel models without the consideration of the spatial correlation, implying that there will be large errors of the GDP per capita corresponding to the peak water use in China neglecting the correlation of regional water use when using the traditional approaches.

关 键 词：经济增长 区域用水 库兹涅茨曲线 空间面板计量模型 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]