基于空间杜宾模型的人口老龄化时空研究  

Study on Ageing of Population Based on Spatial Dubin Model

作　　者：张丽[1] ZHANG Li(Shandong University of Political Science and Law,Jinan 250014,Shandong)

机构地区：[1]山东政法学院商学院

出　　处：《电脑与电信》2019年第4期12-16,共5页Computer & Telecommunication

基　　金：山东省社会科学规划研究项目“人口结构的时空变化特征及其对山东经济增长的非线性影响分析与对策建议”,项目编号:17CJJJ16;山东政法学院经济发展与数据科学协同创新团队;山东省社会科学基金新旧动能转换研究专题“山东省新产业、新业态生产效率的时空评价机制研究”,项目编号:19CDNJ37

摘　　要：文章以2000-2018年、2000-2010年山东省及17地级市的人口、经济等数据为基础,运用Geoda软件、MATLAB软件,计算Moran’sI指数、空间杜宾模型(SDM),分析了经济水平、医疗服务、教育水平等六个因素对17地级市老龄化指数的空间效应。研究表明,山东省老化系数呈上升趋势且增长速度加快;老龄化指数明显东高西低、北高南低的空间格局没有出现明显改变;老龄化指数存在显著空间滞后性;经济水平、社会医疗水平和城市化水平的提高均能显著正向影响老龄化指数;人口自然增长率、人口出生率、城市化率的滞后因素对老龄化指数有显著的正效应;社会医疗服务水平对本地区与周边城市的老龄化指数具有显著溢出效应。Based on the data of population and economy of Shandong Province and 17 prefecture-level cities from 2000 to 2018 and 2000-2010,this paper calculates Moran’s I index and spatial Dubin model(SDM),by using Geoda software and MATLAB software to analyze the economic level.It analyzes the spatial effect of six factors on the aging index of 17 prefectural-level cities,such as medical service and education level.The results show that the aging coefficient of Shandong Province is on the rise and the growth rate is accelerated,and the spatial pattern of the aging index is obviously high in the east and low in the west and low in the north and south,and there is no obvious change in the spatial pattern of the aging index.There is a significant spatial lag in the aging index.The improvement of economic level,social medical level and urbanization level can significantly positively affect the aging index,and the lag factors of population natural growth rate,birth rate and urbanization rate have significant positive effects on the aging index.The level of social medical service has a significant spillover effect on the aging index of the region and the surrounding cities.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 山东省地级市 时空 空间杜宾模型 

分 类 号：F293.1[经济管理—国民经济]