生命历程视角下老年人口高血压患病的年龄-时期-队列效应分析  

Age Period Cohort Analysis of Hypertension in the Elderly from the Perspective of Life Course

作　　者：吴炳义[1] 董惠玲[1] 于奇 王在翔[1] 乔晓春[2] 陈鹤[2] WU Bing-yi;DONG Hui-ling;YU Qi;WANG Zai-xiang;QIAO Xiao-chun;CHEN He(School of Management,Weifang Medical University,Weifang 261053 ,China;Population Research Institute,Peking University,Bwijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]潍坊医学院公共卫生与管理学院,山东潍坊261053 [2]北京大学人口研究所,北京100871

出　　处：《人口与发展》2019年第3期76-84,13,共10页Population and Development

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(编号:17ZDA124);国家社会科学基金面上项目(编号:18BRK013)

摘　　要：在生命历程理论框架下,探讨我国老年人群高血压患病的年龄、时期和队列效应,对于慢性非传染疾病发生、发展规律,制定现代社会条件下全人群、全生命周期的防控策略具有重要意义。数据来源为中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查(CLHLS)1998年、2000年、2002年、2005年,2008年、2011年和2014年,共7期调查。在描述性分析基础上,运用分层随机效应模型,探讨我国老年人群高血压患病的年龄、时期和队列效应。结果表明,个体层面上的性别、城乡、教育程度和生活来源均显著影响老年人群的高血压患病率;年龄效应上,老年人群高血压患病风险随年龄增加而增大;1998-2002,2002-2005和2008-2014三个历史时期,高血压患病率随年代总体呈上升趋势;与备受关注的时期效应相比,我国老年人群高血压患病率的队列效应不显著。可见,我国老年人群高血压患病风险的时期效应占主导地位,生活环境、行为生活方式、饮食习惯和心理状况等因素,可能是形成时期效应的重要因子。Under the framework of life course theory, this paper discusses the age, period and cohort effect of hypertension in the elderly population in China, summarizes the occurrence and development of chronic non-communicable diseases, and formulates the whole population under the conditions of modem society. The prevention and control strategy of the whole life cycle is significant. The data were collected from 1998 ,2000,2002,2005 ,2008,2011 and 2014. On the basis of descriptive analysis, stratified random effect model was used to study the age, period and cohort effect of hypertension in the elderly population. The results showed that sex, urban and rural areas, education level and source of living significantly affected the prevalence of hypertension in the elderly. Age effect, the risk of hypertension in the elderly increased with the growth;The prevalence rate of hypertension in the three historical periods from 1998-2002 to 2002 -2005 and 2008 -2014 showed an overall upward trend(P<0.05). Compared with the period effect ,the cohort effect of hypertension prevalence in the elderly population was not significant ( p =0. 0549). It can be seen that the period effect of hypertension risk is dominant in the elderly population in China. The changes of factors such as living environment, behavior lifestyle ,diet habits and psychological status may be the important factors to form the period effect.

关 键 词：高血压 患病率 生命历程 年龄-时期-队列分析 

分 类 号：C913.6[经济管理]