基于LMDI的城市能源消费总量指标评价模型研究  

Research on Evaluation Model of Urban Energy Consumption Total Indicators Based on LMDI

作　　者：孙倩 汪鹏[1,2,3] 蔡国田[1,2,3] 赵黛青 钟少芬[5] SUN Qian;WANG Peng;CAI Guotian;ZHAO Daiqing;ZHONG Shaofen(Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou Guangdong 510640,China;Key Laboratory of Renewable Energy,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou Guangdong 510640,China;Guangdong Provin cial Key Laboratory of New and Renewable Energy Research and Development,GuangzhouGuangdong 510640,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Don gguan University of Technology,Don ggua n Guangdong 523808,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院广州能源研究所,广东广州510640 [2]中国科学院可再生能源重点实验室,广东广州510640 [3]广东省新能源和可再生能源研究开发与应用重点实验室,广东广州510640 [4]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [5]东莞理工学院,广东东莞523808

出　　处：《生态经济》2019年第6期98-105,共8页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“基于经济-技术-空间集成能源模型的电力系统低碳化路径研究”(71603248);广东省“创新强校工程”项目“节能减排目标下的低碳情况分析与政府研究——东莞为例”(2016WQNCX140);广东省科技计划“工业园区智慧能源管理系统的关键技术及示范研究”(2017A050501060)

摘　　要：在城市能源消费总量控制及分解过程中,针对区(县)级经济社会发展的不均衡性,有必要构建一套公平、科学的指标用于测度各区的能源需求。文章应用LMDI方法选取人口、人均GDP、能源强度、城镇化率等9项因素对城市能源消费的影响因素进行分解,并获得各因素的贡献率,依据9项因素贡献率大小确定影响能源消费的7项关键指标及其权重值,构建指标评价模型。进而根据城市能源消费总量指标评价模型测度各区能源需求的综合指数,通过对比分析各行政区综合指数值大小和区域发展实际情况,将广州市11个行政区的能源消费分为高、中、低速三类增长区,可作为分解能源消费总量控制目标的主要参考依据。In the process of urban energy consumption total control and decomposition, it is necessary to construct a set of fair and scientific indicators for measuring the energy demand of each district under the imbalance of economic development at the district(county) level. In this paper, the LMDI method is used to select nine factors of population, per capita GDP, energy intensity and urbanization rate to decompose the factors affecting urban energy consumption, and obtain the contribution rate of each factor. According to the contribution rate of nine factors, the energy consumption is determined. Seven key indicators and their weight values are constructed to build an indicator evaluation model. According to the urban energy consumption total index evaluation model, the comprehensive index of energy demand in each district are measured, through the comparative analysis of the comprehensive index value of each administrative region and the actual situation of regional development, the 11 administrative divisions of Guangzhou are divided into three categories of energy consumption high,medium and low-speed growth areas. These three types of growth areas are used as the main reference for the decomposition of energy consumption total control targets.

关 键 词：能源消费总量控制 指标评价模型 分解 综合指数 

分 类 号：TK9[动力工程及工程热物理] F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]