黄淮海地区冬小麦种植北界时空演变及未来趋势分析  

Spatial-temporal distribution and change trend of northern limit of winter wheat planting in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain

作　　者：唐晓培[1,2] 宋妮 陈智芳[1] 王景雷[1,3] Tang Xiaopei;Song Ni;Chen Zhifang;Wang Jinglei(Key Laboratory of Crop Water Use and Regulation,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Farmland Irrigation Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Xinxiang 453002,China;Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology,College of Water Sciences,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农田灌溉研究所农业农村部作物需水与调控重点实验室,新乡453002 [2]北京师范大学水科学研究院城市水循环与海绵城市技术北京市重点实验室,北京100875 [3]中国农业工程学会

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2019年第9期129-137,共9页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51609245、51709262);中央级科研院所基本科研业务费专项资助项目(FIRI2017-07);中国农业科学院基本科研业务费专项院级统筹项目(Y2019XK04);河南省基础与前沿技术研究(162300410168)

摘　　要：为探索黄淮海地区冬小麦种植北界的变化规律,该文基于黄淮海及周边地区94个气象站1961—2017年逐日气象数据和代表性浓度路径(representative concentration pathways,RCPs)RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下2011—2100年逐日温度数据,采用5个气候指标对黄淮海地区冬小麦种植北界进行分析。主要结论如下:1961—1970年黄淮海地区冬小麦种植北界主要分布于天津—河北霸州—保定—石家庄—邢台—山西临汾一线;1971—1980年,该线在河北境内北移约65km,在山西境内北移约40km;与1971—1980年相比,1981—1990年北界变化较小,仅在河北唐山附近略南移,山西运城附近略北移;与1981—1990年相比,1991—2000年北界变化较大,尤以山西地区为最,将原本的正弦线趋势压缩为平滑抛物线趋势,临汾附近南移,阳城附近北移;相较于1991—2000年,2001—2010年北界略北移;相较于2001—2010年,2011—2017年北界呈南移现象。未来RCP4.5情景下,2011—2040年冬小麦种植北界主要分布在河北乐亭—唐山—北京—河北保定—石家庄—邢台—山西榆社—临汾一线;2041—2070年该线在河北境内北移至秦皇岛,山西境内北移至介休;与2041—2070年相比,2071—2100年北界在河北境内趋于稳定,在山西境内北移至太原北部。RCP8.5情景下,冬小麦种植北界变化较大:2011—2040年北界位于河北秦皇岛—唐山—北京—河北保定—石家庄—山西临汾一线;2041—2070年,该线在河北境内北移至遵化、青龙附近,在山西境内北移至兴县、太原附近;2071—2100年,北界北移至河北承德—丰宁—张家口—怀来—保定—山西原平—五寨—河曲一带。此外,与RCP8.5相比,RCP4.5情景下黄淮海地区冬小麦种植北界变化趋势较小。该研究可为黄淮海地区冬小麦种植敏感性地带适应气候变化提供理论依据和技术支撑。Studying the northern limit of winter wheat in the past, present and future in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain may provide theoretical basis and technical support to mitigate climate change on winter wheat cultivation in the sensitive zone in the North China. Daily meteorological data during 1961-2017 at 94 climatic stations in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain and the projected temperature during 2011-2100 generated by the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM4.2) and the second generation of Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) in representative concentration paths RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were used in this study. Five climatic indicators, the coldest monthly mean temperature (≥-8 ℃), the extreme minimum temperature (≥-24 ℃), the accumulated temperature before overwintering (≥400 ℃), the negative accumulated temperature during overwintering (≥-450 ℃), and the accumulated temperature during the whole growth period of winter wheat(≥1 700 ℃), were used to evaluate the probabilities of winter wheat planting in different decades and the change of northern limit of winter wheat at 80% guarantee level in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 1961 to 2100. Main results were listed as following: during 1961-1970, the northern limit of winter wheat in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain was mainly distributed in the area of Tianjin-Bazhou-Baoding- Shijiazhuang-Xingtai-Linfen;during 1971-1980, it moved northwards by 65 km in Hebei province and 40 km in Shanxi province, respectively. Compared with 1971-1980, northern limit during 1981-1990 changed a little, it moved slightly southwards near Tangshan in Hebei province and northwards near Yuncheng in Shanxi province. Compared with 1981-1990, the northern limit during 1991-2000 showed a significant change, especially in Shanxi province, it gradually became a smooth parabola from a sine curve. After that, it just moved northward slightly during 2001-2010, then compared with 2001-2010, it showed a trend of moving southward during 2011-2017. Under RCP4.5 scenario, the spatial distribution of probabilities o

关 键 词：气候变化 温度 作物 冬小麦 种植北界 黄淮海地区 

分 类 号：S162.2[农业科学—农业气象学]