第一届女篮世界杯参赛队攻防能力评价  

Comprehensive Assessment of Offensive and Defensive Ability of the First Women’s Basketball World Cup Teams

作　　者：许春煌[1] XU Chun-huang(Physical Education Institute,Jimei University,Xiamen 361021,China)

机构地区：[1]集美大学体育学院

出　　处：《体育科学研究》2019年第2期37-46,共10页Sports Science Research

摘　　要：采用文献资料法、RSR综合评价法、逐步回归分析法、数理统计法对第一届女篮世界杯16支参赛球队攻防数据进行统计分析,结果表明:攻防能力RSR值能较准确地反映球队的整体实力,美国队攻防能力RSR值排名第一,为A级水平,是攻守平衡的世界超一流强队;澳大利亚、比利时攻防能力为A级,属于攻守平衡的世界一流强队;法国、西班牙为B级,属于攻守平衡的世界准一流强队;日本、加拿大为B级,属于攻强守弱的世界二流强队。中国队属于C级,是攻强守弱球队,尚未达到世界强队的水平;土耳其为C级,是攻弱守强、整体实力较弱的球队;尼日利亚、波多黎各、希腊、拉脱维亚、塞内加尔、韩国为D级,攻防综合能力较弱;阿根廷为E级,攻防综合能力最弱。回归分析所建立的最优化函数模型能够科学地评估各参赛队的攻防能力,预测的理论比赛名次与实际比赛名次高度相关,总投中、失分这2个指标是影响球队比赛名次的最主要因素。提出中国队应重点加强防守技战术训练,提升球队整体防守能力,重视选拔培养具有统帅力的球队核心队员。By means of the Documentary Analysis Method,RSR Comprehensive Evaluation,Stepwise Regression Analysis and Mathematical Statistics,this paper statistically analyzes the data of attack and defense of 16 teams in the First Women s Basketball World Cup.The result shows that the RSR value of offensive and defensive ability can accurately reflect the overall strength of all teams among which USA ranks first in offensive and defensive RSR value with level A and is regarded as the world s top team with balanced offense and defense.Australia and Belgium with level-A offensive and defensive capabilities are the world-class teams with balanced offense and defense;France and Spain,which are level B,are the world s quasi-top teams with balanced offense and defense;Japan and Canada,which are level B,are the world s second-rate teams in offense and weak defense;China,which ranks C,and below the level of the world s strong teams,is strong in offensive and weak in defensive;Turkey,which is weak in offense and strong in defense ranks C;Nigeria,Puerto Rico,Greece,Latvia,Senegal and South Korea rank D with weak offensive and defensive capabilities;Argentina ranks E with the weakest comprehensive offensive and defensive capabilities.The optimization function model established by regression analysis can scientifically evaluate the offensive and defensive abilities of each team.The predicted theoretical tournament rankings are highly correlated with the actual tournament rankings.The two indicators,field goal and lost points,are the most important factors affecting the team's tournament rankings.It is suggested that Chinese team should focus on the training of defensive techniques and tactics,improving the overall defensive ability,and attach more importance to the selection and training of core team members with commanding ability.

关 键 词：女子篮球 世界杯 RSR综合评价 回归分析 

分 类 号：G841[文化科学—体育训练]