基于多元线性回归的甘池泉流量对降水响应特征分析  

Response Characteristic Analysis of Ganchi Spring Discharge to Rainfall on the Basis of Multiple Linear Regression

作　　者：南英华[1] 郭高轩[1] 许亮[1] 沈媛媛[1] 陆海燕[1] 陈永衡 NAN Yinghua;GUO Gaoxuan;XU Liang;SHEN Yuanyuan;LU Haiyan;CHEN Yongheng(Beijing Institute of Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,Beijing 100195)

机构地区：[1]北京市水文地质工程地质大队

出　　处：《城市地质》2019年第2期31-35,共5页Urban Geology

基　　金：北京市优秀人才培养资助(2015400617931G297);北京岩溶水资源勘查评价工程(京发改[2011]1215号)

摘　　要：以房山长沟镇甘池泉流量为研究对象,采用多元线性回归方法,分析泉流量-降水的响应特征。自相关性及互相关性分析结果表明,泉流量对降水表现为短期滞时(快速响应)和长期滞时(5~6个月)。建立大气降水-泉流量的多元线性回归模型,将输出结果与实测过程曲线相拟合,纳什效率系数NSE为0.72,表明建模效果较好。经分析,所建模型用于4个月之内的泉流量预测较为可靠。结合甘池泉域含水层特性分析,泉流量在降水后产生快速响应,其径流主要来自于表层岩溶带裂隙水流;而5~6个月的长滞时响应来源于深远部岩溶带裂隙水流。Based on the monitoring data of Ganchi spring discharge in Changgou Town,Fangshan District of Beijing,the spring discharge and rainfalls are quantitatively analyzed by using the multiple linear regression methods.The result of correlation analysis shows that the time relationship between spring discharge and rainfalls can be classified into short-term response(fast response)and long-term response(5-6 months).Multiple linear regression model of the spring discharge-rainfall is established,and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient(NSE=0.72)illustrates that the output results of the model fit the measured discharge series well.According to the predicted result,the model established in this paper is feasible for simulating the spring discharge in 4 months.Combined with the aquifer properties of Ganchi spring basin,the runoff of the short-term response is derived mostly from the surface karst fissure water,and the tiny karst fissure water in the depths or distance,resulting in the long-term response.

关 键 词：甘池泉 多元线性回归 泉流量-降水响应 

分 类 号：P641.1[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]