基于系统动力学的高速公路PPP项目收益研究——以田林至西林(滇桂界)高速公路为例  

Research on the Benefits of Expressway PPP Project Based on System Dynamics:Taking Tianlin to Xilin(Yunnan-Guizhou Junction) Expressway as an Example

作　　者：刘秋林[1] 贾立敏[1] LIU Qiu-lin;JIA Li-min(College of Economics and Management,China Three Georges University,Yichang 443000,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《价值工程》2019年第16期20-23,共4页Value Engineering

摘　　要：在我国公共交通运输基础设施建设中,高速公路作为我国交通运输业重要的一部分,在国民经济发展中有着举足轻重的地位。本文通过搭建某高速公路PPP项目的成本与收入的框架,对项目收益影响因素的分析,利用系统动力学和VensimPLE软件,构建某高速公路PPP项目收益系统动力学模型,讨论了特许经营期、车辆通行收入、可行性缺口补助等对高速公路PPP项目收益的影响程度,为高速公路PPP项目中政府和社会投资者在投资决策时提供相关参考。In the construction of public transportation infrastructure in China,highways,as an important part of China's transportation industry,play an important role in the development of national economy.By constructing the cost and revenue framework of a highway PPP project,this paper analyzes the factors affecting the project revenue,and uses the system dynamics and Vensim PLE software to construct the revenue system dynamics model of a highway PPP project,and discusses the franchise period.The degree of influence of vehicle traffic income and feasibility gap subsidies on the revenue of expressway PPP projects provides relevant reference for government and social investors in the PPP project.

关 键 词：高速公路 PPP项目收益 系统动力学 

分 类 号：F284.3[经济管理—国民经济]