水库洪水概率预报和汛期运行水位动态控制  

Reservoir flood probability forecasting and dynamic control of water level during flood season

作　　者：郭生练[1] 钟逸轩 吴旭树 刘章君[1] GUO Shenglian;ZHONG Yixuan;WU Xushu;LIU Zhangjun(State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430071)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室

出　　处：《中国防汛抗旱》2019年第6期1-4,共4页China Flood & Drought Management

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFC508001);国家自然科学基金(51879192)资助项目

摘　　要：降水和洪水预报对水库防洪兴利综合调度至关重要。开展中长期降雨预报和洪水概率预报,不仅可延长预见期,还可考虑不确定性并提高预报精度。介绍了水库洪水概率预报和水库汛期运行水位动态控制,显著地提高了洪水资源利用率。建议进一步开展降雨洪水概率预报、水库汛限水位专题研究和应用,提高我国水库的科学管理水平。Rainfall and flood forecasting are crucial for reservoir flood control and comprehensive benefits operation.Longrange precipitation prediction and flood probability forecasting not only can extend prediction leading times,but also can consider uncertainty and increase accuracy.Reservoir flood probability forecasting and dynamic control of reservoir water level can effectively increase floodwater utilization rate without increasing flood prevention risks.It is suggested to further study rainfall flood probability forecasting and reservoir flood control limted water level for raising scientific management level.

关 键 词：降雨预报 洪水概率预报 汛限水位 动态控制 

分 类 号：TV877[水利工程—水利水电工程]