城镇化进程中的邻避项目风险演化线索探究  

Exploration of the Risk Evolution Cues of NIMBY Projects under Urbanization Process

作　　者：李保祥 王璞[2] 孙德梅 康伟[1] Li Baoxiang;Wang Pu;Sun Demei;Kang Wei(School of Economics and Management,Harbin Engineering University,Harbin 150001,China;College of Automation,Harbin Engineering University,Harbin 150001,China)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工程大学经济管理学院,哈尔滨150001 [2]哈尔滨工程大学自动化学院,哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《工程研究（跨学科视野中的工程）》2019年第2期146-156,共11页JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING STUDIES

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“城镇化背景下邻避危机发展演化机理及协同网络研究”(71774038);中国制造与国家安全产业智库项目“国防科技工业科技安全评价研究”(HEUCFP201833);黑龙江省哲社科规划项目“中美贸易摩擦”背景下黑龙江省装备制造业安全研究(18GLB025)

摘　　要：随着城市化进程的加快,邻避冲突愈演愈烈,对其成因进行分析十分重要。为探究项目风险演化为邻避冲突的关键影响因素,在对已有研究成果梳理总结的基础上,归纳得到13个线索因素,构建出邻避风险演化单一系统设计透镜模型,以实现主观认知判断对决策标的预测。运用PolicyEXC软件对回收的SJT问卷数据进行仿真,经过整合分析确定3个具有预测作用的线索,分别为政府部门的信息封闭、环境遭受污染程度及生活质量受损程度。With the increasing urbanization rate in our country,the occurrence of “not in my back yard”(NIMBY) conflict has become intensified,so it is particularly important to analyze the causes of these conflicts. Therefore,to explore the effects of the risk evolution of NIMBY projects on NIMBY conflicts,we have generalized and identified 13 cues (decision reference variables) by summarizing the existing research results.Further,to realize prediction about the influencing factors whereby NIMBY risk evolves into NIMBY conflict,we then constructed a single system design lens model of NIMBY conflict evolution and prediction.Based on the simulation analysis of 75 collected pieces of valid SJT questionnaire data collected by Policy EXC software,through integration and analysis we obtained the following three predictability cues:government departments closing and not sharing NIMBY information,degree of environmental pollution,and impaired quality of life.

关 键 词：邻避项目 风险演化 邻避冲突 透镜模型 线索 

分 类 号：C931.2[经济管理—管理学]