价差驱动还是刚性需求:中国饲料粮进口激增的动因分析  

Drived by Price Difference or Rigid Demand:Motivation of the Increase in China’s Feed Grain Imports

作　　者：赵金鑫[1] 潘彪[1] 田志宏[1] ZHAO Jinxin;PAN Biao;TIAN Zhihong

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《农业经济问题》2019年第5期98-109,共12页Issues in Agricultural Economy

基　　金：农业部软科学委员会研究项目“农业补贴政策‘黄转绿’问题研究”(编号:D201714)

摘　　要：本文建立中国饲料粮进口三元边际的联立方程模型,将价格因素和国内需求因素纳入同一研究框架识别饲料粮进口快速增长的主导因素及其影响进口总量的路径。结果表明,中国饲料粮进口增长主要是由国内外价差驱动的,玉米临时收储政策助推了价差的扩大,并对中国进口饲料粮的价格上涨形成示范效应。经济发展、人口增长和收入水平提高使得畜产品消费增长,引致的饲料粮需求是渐进增长的,并未构成当前饲料粮进口激增的动因。双边自贸区的建立通过降低进口价格和扩大贸易的产品范围引起了中国饲料粮进口总量增长,降低双边贸易成本有利于扩展饲料粮进口的广度、防范国际贸易风险。This paper establishes a simultaneous equations model of China’s tree margins of feed grain imports,including the price factors and domestic demand factors into the same framework to explore the leading factors of feed grain imports growth and their way to influence total imports.The results indicate that domestic and foreign price difference is the main reason for the increase in feed grain import.Temporary corn purchases and storage policies has help widen the spreads of price difference and has taken a demonstration effect on the rise in import price.Economic development,population growth lead to increasing consumption of livestock products,which results in gradual growth in domestic feed grain demand.This means that these domestic consumption factors don’t contribute to the sharp growth in feed grain import.The establishment of bilateral Free Trade Areas promotes the imports of feed grains by reducing import price and expanding the range of trading products.Reducing the cost of bilateral trade would help expand the width of feed grain imports and thus prevent international trade risks.

关 键 词：饲料粮进口 国际市场价格 国内消费 联立方程模型 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F752.61