构建旅游消费价格指数对城乡居民旅游消费预测的实证分析——基于VAR模型的检验  

Empirical analysis on the prediction of tourism consumption price index construction for tourism consumption of urban and rural residents——Test based on VAR model

作　　者：周力[1] ZHOU Li(School of Management,Central Minzu University of China,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]中央民族大学管理学院

出　　处：《价格月刊》2019年第6期1-5,共5页

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“区域经济协调发展中的技术收敛问题研究”(编号:15BJY023)

摘　　要：旅游产品及其服务价格是旅游消费者普遍关心的问题,直接影响到旅游消费者的消费选择和满意度。通过构建旅游消费价格指数(TPI)对城乡居民旅游消费预测进行实证分析,结果表明:(1)TPI上升短期内会降低城镇居民旅游消费需求,长期内不会对城镇居民旅游消费需求产生影响;(2)农村居民对于旅游价格波动更为敏感,TPI上升无论是短期还是长期均会导致农村居民旅游消费需求下降;(3)格兰杰检验结果证明,TPI波动是影响城乡居民旅游消费需求变化的原因,且TPI与城乡居民旅游消费之间存在着长期协整关系。根据研究结论,提出了完善我国旅游价格体系的相关对策建议。The price of tourism products and services is a common concern of tourism consumers,which directly affects their consumption choices and satisfaction.This paper empirically analyzes the tourism consumption forecast of urban and rural residents by constructing the Tourism Consumer Price Index(TPI).The results show that:(1) the rise of TPI will only reduce the tourism consumption demand of urban residents in the short term,but will not affect it in the long run;(2) the rural residents is more sensitive to the tourism price fluctuations,their demand for tourism consumption will decline both in short-term and long-term if the TPI rises;(3) the results of Granger test prove that TSI fluctuation is the reason that affects the change of tourism consumption demand of urban and rural residents,and there is a long-term cointegration between TPI and urban and rural residents.Based on the research conclusions,this paper comes up with some suggestions for improving the tourism price system in China.

关 键 词：旅游消费价格指数 城乡居民 旅游消费 VAR模型 协整分析 

分 类 号：F7[经济管理—产业经济]