Predicting the Outcome of a Tennis Tournament:Based on Both Data and Judgments  

作　　者：Wei Gu Thomas L.Saaty 

机构地区：[1]aDonlinks School of Economics and Management,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China [2]Distinguished University Professor,University of Pittsburgh,Pittsburgh,PA 15260,United States

出　　处：《Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering》2019年第3期317-343,共27页系统科学与系统工程学报（英文版）

基　　金：the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Number 71702009,71531013,71729001);Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(FRF-BR-16-005A).

摘　　要：This paper is about predicting the outcome of tennis matches of the Association of Tennis Professionals(ATP)and the Women's Tennis Association(WTA)using both data and judgments.There are many factors that influence that outcome.An important question is which factors have significant influence on the outcome.We have identified numerous factors and systematically prioritized them subjectively and objectively,so as to improve the accuracy of the prediction.We then used them to predict the win-lose outcome of the 2015 US OPEN tennis matches(63 men and 31 women's games)before they took place.The tennis match prediction in sports literature thus far reported an accuracy rate of 70%.The accuracy of our proposed model which combines data and judgment reaches 85.1%.

关 键 词：Prediction TENNIS DATA analysis JUDGMENT 

分 类 号：N[自然科学总论]