就业结构、刘易斯转折点与劳动收入份额:理论与经验研究  

Employment Structure, Lewis Turning Point and the Labor Share of Income: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis

作　　者：蓝嘉俊 方颖[2,3,4] 马天平 Lan Jiajun;Fang Ying;Ma Tianping

机构地区：[1]厦门大学王亚南经济研究院 [2]教育部计量经济学重点实验室 [3]厦门大学王亚南经济研究院和经济学院 [4]福建省统计科学重点实验室,361005 [5]北京体育大学体育商学院 [6]对外经济贸易大学

出　　处：《世界经济》2019年第6期94-118,共25页The Journal of World Economy

基　　金：国家杰出青年科学基金(71625001);国家自然科学基金重点项目(71631004);国家留学基金(201806310057)的资助

摘　　要：在中国劳动力市场分割和刘易斯转折点到来的背景下,本文从就业所有制结构变化的角度来解释中国劳动收入份额先下降后上升的变化趋势。理论分析表明当农业劳动力不断转移至个体私营部门时,劳动收入份额呈现先下降后上升的变化趋势。利用1990-2016年中国省际面板数据,本文的经验研究表明存在一个临界值:当农业劳动力比重大于该临界值时,城镇私企就业比重的提高会使劳动收入份额下降;当小于等于该临界值时,城镇私企就业比重的提高会使劳动收入份额上升;而其他就业所有制结构变量在临界值两侧不存在类似特征。城镇私企就业比重提高对2007-2016年劳动收入份额上升的解释力度约为29.37%。本文从制度保障、构建和谐劳动关系、再分配调节以及转变经济发展方式四个方面给出了政策建议。In the context of the labor market segmentation in China and its reaching the Lewis turning point,this paper interprets the changing trend of the labor share of income in China from the changing perspective of the employment ownership structure.The theoretical analysis reveals that the labor share of income follows a U-shaped curve when the agriculture labor force gradually moves into the private and self-employed sectors.Using the Chinese provincial-level panel dataset between 1990 and 2016,our empirical study finds that there is a critical threshold.When the share of agricultural labor force is above this threshold value,the impact of the increase in the employment share of the urban private sector on the labor share of income is negative.In contrast,the impact becomes positive when the share of the agricultural labor force is less than or equal to this threshold value.Moreover,the impacts of other variables of employment ownership structure don t show this kind of feature on both sides of this threshold value.The increase in the employment share of the urban private sector accounts for about 29.37 percent of the growing labor share of income between 2007 and 2016.This paper provides policy implications in the following four areas:institutional guarantee improvement,harmonious labor relations establishment,redistribution policy imposition and economic development pattern transformation.

关 键 词：劳动收入份额 就业所有制 刘易斯转折点 城镇私企就业 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济]