基于动态概率潮流的输电网断线风险评估  

Assessment on Line-breakage Risk in Transmission Network based on Dynamic Probability Power Flow

作　　者：陈缨 郭小敏[2] 黄宇 王瑶[4] 杨健维[2] CHEN Ying;GUO Xiaomin;HUANG Yu;WANG Yao;YANG Jianwei(State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Research Institute, Chengdu 610032, China;School of Electrical Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China;State Grid Jiangxi Ganxi Power Supply Company, Xinyu 338000, China;College of Electrical & Information Engineering, Southwest Minzu University, Chengdu 610041, China)

机构地区：[1]国网四川省电力公司电力科学研究院,四川成都610032 [2]西南交通大学电气工程学院,四川成都610031 [3]国网江西省赣西供电公司,江西新余338000 [4]西南民族大学电气信息工程学院,四川成都610041

出　　处：《中国电力》2019年第5期155-163,共9页Electric Power

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2018GF04)~~

摘　　要：传统基于潮流的输电网断线风险评估研究无法考虑到负荷、风电出力等不确定因素的随机变化。因此,将动态概率潮流应用于输电网断线风险评估。首先建立输电网中负荷及风电出力的动态概率模型;其次,运用动态概率潮流计算系统中线路发生断线故障时其他未故障支路功率过载及节点电压越限概率;然后结合线路潮流介数和节点潮流介数,给出断线后果严重度指标;最后将输电网断线故障的概率与后果严重度指标结合,提出一种基于动态概率潮流的输电网断线风险评估方法。仿真结果表明,输电网断线风险评估结果科学、合理,能为输电网规划运行提供全面可靠的理论支撑。The random variation of load and wind power output is not considered in the conventional power flow-based line-breakage risk assessment methods. The dynamic probability power flow is thus applied in the assessment of line-breakage risk in transmission network. Firstly, the dynamic probability model of load and wind power output is established. Secondly, the overload probability and the node voltage violation probability of non-fault branch lines are calculated using the dynamic probability power flow when line-breakage occurs in the power network. And then, the sequence severity indices are obtained based on power betweenness of lines and nodes. Finally, by combining the probability of line-breakage with the sequence severity indices, the dynamic probability power flow -based assessment method is proposed on the line-breakage risk in transmission network. Simulation results show that the proposed line-breakage risk assessment method is scientific and rationale, and can provide an important theoretical basis for operation planning of transmission network.

关 键 词：风电出力 动态概率潮流 后果严重度 断线风险评估 规划运行 

分 类 号：TM712[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]