贸易战背景下中美进出口商品贸易结构分析(2007—2016)  

Analysis of China-US Import and Export of Commodity Trade Structure under the Trade War:2007—2016

作　　者：周俊[1] 洪晨翔 王君[2] ZHOU Jun;HONG Chenxiang;WANG Jun(College of Economics,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou 310023, China;College of Zhijiang,Zhejiang University of Technology,Shaoxing 312030, China)

机构地区：[1]浙江工业大学经济学院,浙江杭州310023 [2]浙江工业大学之江学院,浙江绍兴312030

出　　处：《上海管理科学》2019年第3期76-83,共8页Shanghai Management Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金面上项目“互联网+”背景下外贸新业态的发展路径、机制及其政策研究(18BJY184)

摘　　要：研究贸易战背景下2007-2016年中美进出口商品贸易结构变化。基于Lall(2000)对贸易品的分类方法,利用RCA指数、出口相似度指数、贸易互补指数对两国贸易品的比较优势、竞争性和互补性进行系统全面的分析。结果表明:中对美出口集中在生产组装端的低附加值产品,但对核心零部件的进口依赖度居高不下;中美贸易逆差符合两国比较优势及国际产业分工;中美两国在世界市场的进出口竞争力将以高精尖制造业为主;中国对美国低技术制成品及电子电力产品的出口潜力较大,高附加值制成品的进口潜力较大;贸易战一旦升级,将阻碍"中国制造2025"、打击中国劳动力市场,加重美国国内消费压力,阻断美在中设立的跨国公司生产工序。This paper studies the structural changes of China-US import and export trade in 2007-2016 under the trade war.Based on the classification method of trade products by Lall(2000),the RCA index,export similarity index and trade complementarity index are used to systematically and comprehensively analyze the comparative advantages,competitiveness and complementarity of trade goods between the two countries.The results show that China exports to the United States focus on low value-added products,but the import dependence on core components remains high;the China-US trade deficit is in line with the comparative advantages of the two countries and the international industrial division of labor;in the future,the import and export competitiveness of China and the United States in the world market will be dominated by high-tech manufactures;on the low-tech manufactures and electronic power products,China has a large export potential from the United States;on the high value-added manufactures,China has a large import potential from the United States.Once the trade war is upgraded,it will hinder"Made in China 2025",attack the Chinese labor market,increase the pressure on domestic consumption in the United States,and block the production process of multinational companies established bt the United States.

关 键 词：贸易战 贸易结构 比较优势 竞争性 互补性 

分 类 号：F74[经济管理—国际贸易]