近60年渤黄海海冰灾害演变特征与经济损失浅析  

An Analysis on the Evolution Characteristics of Sea Ice Disasters and the Economic Losses Arising Thereform in the Bohai Sea and Huanghai Sea of China in Recent 60 Years

作　　者：左常圣 范文静[1] 邓丽静[1] 李文善[1] 刘秋林[1] 王慧[1] ZUO Changsheng;FAN Wenjing;DENG Lijing;LI Wenshan;LIU Qiulin;WANG Hui(National Marine Data and Information Service, Tianjin 300171, China)

机构地区：[1]国家海洋信息中心

出　　处：《海洋经济》2019年第2期50-55,共6页Marine Economy

基　　金：国家重点研发计划[2017YFC1405300]

摘　　要：在气候变暖、极端天气气候事件增多及承灾体脆弱性增大背景下,我国海冰灾害呈现出不易预测、破坏性大等新的特点。基于1963-2016年中国沿海海洋站海冰冰情数据及海冰灾害损失数据,分析了我国海冰灾害的变化特征及其影响。结果显示:我国渤海与黄海北部自11月中下旬由北往南开始结冰,各海区冰情存在较大差异。受气候变暖的影响,海冰冰情总体有降低的趋势,同时我国海冰冰情呈现约10年的准周期性特征,且近年来极端天气气候事件的频次和强度不断增加,海冰灾害造成的影响进一步加重, 2010年以来由海冰灾害造成的直接经济损失高达77亿元,其中辽宁、山东两省受海冰灾害影响较为严重。因此,我国未来要进一步重视海冰灾害,增强防灾减灾能力建设,减轻灾害损失。Against the background of climate warming, increasing extreme weather and climate events and increasing vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies, sea ice disasters in China show some new characteristics such as unpredictability and great destruction. Based on the sea ice data and the loss data of sea ice disasters from 1963 to 2016 at China’s coastal ocean stations, the variation characteristics and impacts of sea ice disasters in China are analyzed. The results show that the north of the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea begin to freeze from north to south since mid-late November and the ice conditions are quite different in different sea areas. Due to the influence of climate warming, the sea ice situation has a decreasing trend. At the same time, the sea ice situation in China shows a quasi-periodic feature of about 10 years. In recent years, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events have been increasing so that the impact of sea ice disasters has been further aggravated. Since 2010, the direct economic losses caused by sea ice disasters have reached ￥7.7 billion Liaoning and shandong provinces suffered most serious disasters. Therefore, China should pay more attention to sea ice disasters, strengthen the capacity building to prevent and mitigate sea disasters, and reduce disaster losses in the future.

关 键 词：海冰 气候变化 灾害损失 防灾减灾 

分 类 号：K921[历史地理—人文地理学]