全球原油制化学品项目发展现状及石化产品前景分析  

Development status of global crude oil-to-chemicals projects and prospects of petrochemical products

作　　者：徐海丰[1] 于晗[2] XU Haifeng;YU Han(CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute;PetroChina Liaohe Oilfield Company)

机构地区：[1]中国石油集团经济技术研究院 [2]中国石油辽河油田公司勘探开发研究院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2019年第5期23-30,共8页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：原油制化学品项目正在全球一些地区逐渐兴起。目前原油制化学品工艺可分为4代。与以往已建成的炼化一体化项目相比,近两年亚太和中东逐渐兴起的原油制化学品项目化学品转化率更高。原油制化学品对基础石化品生产和炼化工业转型升级将带来革命性影响,该类项目经济效益显著,具有原油资源的公司与中间体生产商投资意愿强烈。未来石化产品供应将快速增长,产业竞争将日趋激烈,石化市场格局将发生重要变化。石化产品增长潜力巨大,发展中国家领先增长;石化产品正快速成为全球石油需求增长的最大推动力;主要地区石化原料在石油需求中的占比都将增加,不同地区炼油产品需求将出现分化;美国、中国、中东新增石化产能潜力最大,全球石化业竞争将加剧;石油石化公司力求化工产品生产效益最大化。主要炼油商开始应对这一变化趋势,用石化品生产来替代部分汽油、柴油和其他馏分油生产,通过对传统炼化工艺集成创新或直接颠覆传统炼油工艺流程,将炼化一体化升级至原油制化学品。Currently,crude oil-to-chemicals(COTCs) projects are emerging in some regions of the world,and the process of making COTCs can be divided into four generations.Compared with the integrated projects,the projects of COTCs in Asia-Pacific and the Middle East have higher chemical conversion rate in the past two years.COTCs will have a revolutionary impact on the transformation and upgrading of basic petrochemical production and refining industry,with significant economic benefits,and companies with crude oil resources and intermediate producers are strongly willing to invest.In the future,the supply of petrochemical products will increase rapidly under the fierce industrial competition,and the petrochemical market pattern will change significantly.Petrochemicals have huge growth potential,with developing countries leading the way.Petrochemicals are fast becoming the biggest driver of global oil demand growth,the proportion of petrochemical raw materials in petroleum demand will increase in major regions,and the demand for refined products will diverge in different regions;the United States,China and the Middle East have the greatest potential for new petrochemical production capacity and petrochemical companies strive to maximize the production efficiency of chemical products.Major refiners started to respond to this trend by replacing some gasoline,diesel,and other distillate production with petrochemical production,upgrading the refining integration to a COTCs through integrated innovation of traditional refining processes or direct disruption of traditional refining processes.

关 键 词：石化产品 石化行业 原油制化学品 炼油商 石化市场 

分 类 号：F416.7[经济管理—产业经济]