定期检测策略下备件需求量仿真预测研究  

Research on Simulation Prediction of Spare Part Demand under Periodic Inspection

作　　者：白永生 王卫国 BAI Yongsheng;WANG Weiguo(Army Engineering University in Shijiazhuang,Shijiazhuang 050003,China;School of Management and Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]陆军工程大学石家庄校区,河北石家庄050003 [2]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081

出　　处：《系统仿真技术》2019年第2期107-109,119,共4页System Simulation Technology

基　　金：“十三五”装备预先研究项目(41404020301)

摘　　要：针对备件需求量预测这一典型问题,结合基于状态的维修实际,研究了定期检测策略下备件需求量的预测方法。首先,分析了设备在定期检测策略下的维修特点,给出了备件需求的产生过程;然后采用计算机仿真的方式,基于设备故障规律研究了一定时间内备件消耗的模拟过程;最后通过一个实例,演示了所提出的预测方法的应用过程与效果,为制订备件订购与储供计划,以及规划维修保障资源等提供了决策依据。Aiming at the typical problem of spare part demand prediction,the method under periodic inspection was studied with the maintenance practice of Condition-Based Maintenance.Firstly,the characteristics of maintenance under periodic inspection was analyzed,and the generation process of spare part demand was given;secondly,with the means of computer simulation,the spare part consumption process was studied based on the failure rules;lastly,a numerical example was given,which demonstrated the application and effect.The research can provide support for spare part ordering plan and maintenance support decision-making.

关 键 词：定期检测 延迟时间 备件需求量 仿真预测 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]