环渤海地区人口与经济协调发展时空演变分析  

Spatial and temporal evolution of coordinated development of population and economy in the Bohai Rim region

作　　者：单良[1] 刘建伟 SHAN Lian;LIU Jianwei(College of Urban and Environmental Science,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院

出　　处：《辽宁师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2019年第2期253-261,共9页Journal of Liaoning Normal University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：辽宁省教育厅科学技术研究重点项目(WZ201783602);辽宁省经济社会发展研究项目(2018lslktzd-020)

摘　　要：基于2006-2016年环渤海地区44个地级市的人口与GDP数据,运用人口-经济增长弹性系数分析环渤海地区人口与经济增长的协调关系,运用地理集中度指数、不一致指数、重心分析方法、空间自相关模型分析环渤海地区人口与经济的空间集聚程度、空间配置协调程度、流动趋势及空间整体相关性.研究结果表明:环渤海地区经济增长对人口增长的拉动作用较弱;人口与经济向辽中南、京津冀中南部及胶东半岛地区集聚;人口重心与经济重心的移动轨迹显示,人口与经济重心轨迹变化方向与空间位置趋于一致;人口-经济不一致指数的全局Moran’I指数均为正且逐渐减小,人口与经济的空间分布趋于协调.Based on the population and GDP data of 44 prefecture-level cities in the Bohai Rim region from 2006 to 2016,the population-economic growth elasticity coefficient is used to analyze the coordination relationship between population and economic growth in the Bohai Rim region.The spatial concentration index,inconsistency index,gravity center analysis method and ESDA are used to analyze the spatial agglomeration degree and spatial allocation of population and economy coordination,mobility trends and overall spatial relevance in the Bohai Rim region.The results of the study show that economic growth in the Bohai Rim region has a weaker effect on population growth.The population and economy are concentrated in central and southern Liaoning,central and southern Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,and central and eastern Shandong,and the trend of gathering in economic centers is obvious.The movement trajectory of population center of gravity and economic center of gravity shows that the direction of change of population and economic center of gravity trajectory is consistent with spatial position.The global Moran’Iindex of the population-economic inconsistency index is positive and gradually decreasing.The Moran’Iscatter plot and the LISA cluster map feature indicate that the spatial distribution of population and economy is gradually harmonizing.

关 键 词：环渤海地区 人口分布 经济发展 协调关系 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学] F127